Forex Market: GBP/USD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw GBP/USD within the range of 1.4600-1.4683. The pair closed at 1.4628, shedding 0.30% on a daily basis. It has been the sixth drop in the past seven trading days and also a fourth consecutive one. The daily low has been the lowest level since April 13th 2015, when a low of 1.4563 was registered.

At 7:53 GMT today GBP/USD was losing 0.13% for the day to trade at 1.4611. The pair touched a daily low at 1.4602 at 7:38 GMT, a higher-low test of the low from January 6th. A break below the psychological 1.4600 level may send the pair down for a test of the low from April 13th (1.4563). Resistance may be encountered at the hourly 21-period EMA (1.4631) and then – at the current daily high of 1.4641.

On Thursday GBP/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic report listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on January 1st, probably decreased to 275 000, according to market expectations, from 287 000 reported in the preceding week. The latter has been the highest number of claims since the business week ended on July 3rd, when a figure of 297 000 was reported.

The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 277 000, marking an increase by 4 500 compared to the preceding week’s unrevised average.

The business week, which ended on December 25th has been the 43rd consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold, which implied a healthy labor market.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or dropped further, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably dropped to the seasonally adjusted 2 193 000 during the business week ended on December 25th from 2 198 000 in the preceding week. The latter represented an increase by 3 000 compared to the unrevised number of claims reported in the week ended on December 11th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.

The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 13:30 GMT.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the traditional calculation method, the daily pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.4637
R1 – 1.4674
R2 – 1.4720
R3 – 1.4757

S1 – 1.4591
S2 – 1.4554
S3 – 1.4508

By using the traditional method of calculation again, the weekly pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.4800
R1 – 1.4874
R2 – 1.5008
R3 – 1.5082

S1 – 1.4666
S2 – 1.4592
S3 – 1.4458