Forex Market: AUD/USD daily trading outlook

Friday’s trade saw AUD/USD within the range of 0.6949-0.7076. The pair closed at 0.6953, plummeting 0.84% on a daily basis, while marking its seventh consecutive trading day of losses. The daily low has been the lowest level since September 29th 2015, when a low of 0.6934 was registered. In weekly terms, AUD/USD depreciated 4.73% last week, or the most since the week ended on September 25th 2011, when it plummeted 5.63%. The pair has lost 3.75% of its value so far in the current month, following three consecutive months of gains.

At 10:54 GMT today AUD/USD was gaining 0.71% for the day to trade at 0.7002. The pair touched a daily high at 0.7016 at 10:09 GMT and a daily low at 0.6928 during the early hours of the Asian trading session. The latter has been the lowest level since September 8th 2015, when a daily low of 0.6917 was reached. Resistance may be encountered at the hourly 100-period EMA (0.7049) and then – at the high from January 8th (0.7076), while support may be received at the hourly 21-period EMA (0.6987) and then – in the area around the current daily high (0.6928).

No relevant macroeconomic reports and other events, which may influence AUD/USD trading, are scheduled on Monday.

Correlation with other Majors

Taking into account the week ended on January 10th and the daily closing levels of the major currency pairs, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

AUD/USD to USD/JPY (0.9900, or very strong)
AUD/USD to NZD/USD (0.9776, or very strong)
AUD/USD to GBP/USD (0.9527, or very strong)
AUD/USD to USD/CHF (0.7101, or strong)
AUD/USD to EUR/USD (-0.7602, or strong)
AUD/USD to USD/CAD (-0.9966, or very strong)

1. During the examined period AUD/USD moved almost equally in the opposite direction compared to USD/CAD. The correlation between the two pairs was almost perfect.

2. AUD/USD moved almost equally in one and the same direction with GBP/USD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY during the past week. This relationship has been the most pronounced between AUD/USD and USD/JPY.

3. AUD/USD moved strongly in one and the same direction with USD/CHF during the period in question, while moving strongly in the opposite direction compared to EUR/USD.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

R1 – 0.6965
R2 – 0.6976
R3 (range resistance) – 0.6988
R4 (range breakout) – 0.7023

S1 – 0.6941
S2 – 0.6930
S3 (range support) – 0.6918
S4 (range breakout) – 0.6883

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 0.7068
R1 – 0.7187
R2 – 0.7421
R3 – 0.7540

S1 – 0.6834
S2 – 0.6715
S3 – 0.6481