Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.4024-1.4158. The pair closed at 1.4099, shedding 0.12% on a daily basis. It has been the 5th drop in the past 17 trading days and also a second consecutive one. The daily low has been the lowest level since January 6th, when USD/CAD went down as low as 1.3969.
At 9:14 GMT today USD/CAD was edging down 0.09% for the day to trade at 1.4086. The pair touched a daily low at 1.4056 at 8:45 GMT, overshooting the range support level (S3), and a daily high at 1.4123 during mid-Asian trading session.
Canadas dollar remained supported, as crude oil prices surged for a second straight day on Wednesday. Oil futures for March delivery went up as high as $32.84 per barrel yesterday, or the highest level since January 11th, and closed at a level of $32.06 to mark their 14th gain in the past 29 trading days. As of 9:26 GMT today the commodity was gaining 1.12% on a daily basis to trade at $32.42 per barrel, after going up as high as $32.44 earlier. Oil has eased its slump to 12.49% so far during the current month.
On Thursday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
United States
Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims
The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on January 22nd, probably dropped to 282 000, according to market expectations, from 293 000 reported in the preceding week. The latter has been the highest number of claims since the week ended on July 3rd 2015, when 297 000 claims were reported.
The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 285 000, marking an increase by 6 500 compared to the preceding weeks revised down average.
The business week, which ended on January 15th has been the 45th consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold, which implied a healthy labor market.
Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or decreased further, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar.
The number of continuing jobless claims probably increased to the seasonally adjusted 2 217 000 during the business week ended on January 15th from 2 208 000 in the preceding week. The latter has been the lowest number of claims since the business week ended on December 18th 2015. The figure also represented a decrease by 56 000 compared to the revised up number of claims reported in the week ended on January 1st. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.
The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 13:30 GMT.
Durable Goods Orders
Durable goods orders in the United States probably dropped 0.6% in December from a month ago, according to the median forecast by experts, after remaining flat in November.
New orders for manufactured durable goods were up USD 0.1 billion in November, or almost unchanged at USD 238.8 billion. The value of shipments of manufactured durable goods, up in two of the past three months, rose 0.9% (or USD 2.1 billion) in November to reach USD 241.8 billion. The value of unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods, up in two consecutive months, rose 0.2% (or USD 1.9 billion) in November to reach USD 1,194.0 billion. At the same time, the value of inventories of manufactured durable goods, down in six of the past seven months, dropped 0.3% (or USD 1.1 billion) during the period to USD 395.7 billion, according to data by the US Census Bureau.
Non-defense new orders for capital goods shrank 6.3% in November to USD 77.2 billion, while defense new orders for capital goods expanded 44.4% to USD 14.1 billion.
Durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, probably shrank 0.1% in December from a month ago, according to expectations, following another 0.1% drop in November. Large ticket orders, such as automobiles for civil use or aircraft, are not present in the calculation, as their value may be in a wide range. This way the index provides a more reliable information in regard to orders for durable goods.
In case the general index fell at a faster-than-projected pace, this would have a strong bearish effect on the US dollar, due to negative implications in regard to the wider gauge of production, factory orders. The US Census Bureau is scheduled to release the official report at 13:30 GMT.
Pending Home Sales
The index of pending home sales in the United States probably rose 0.8% in December, according to the median estimate by experts. If so, this would be the sharpest monthly increase since May 2015, when sales went up 0.9%. In November pending home sales unexpectedly fell 0.9%.
In annual terms, the index of pending home sales advanced 2.7% in November, which has been a 15th consecutive month of increase. However, Novembers rate of sales growth has been the slowest since October 2014, when sales were up 2.2%.
In case pending home sales increased at a faster pace than anticipated, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar. The National Association of Realtor’s (NAR) will report on the official index performance at 15:00 GMT.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.4111
R2 – 1.4124
R3 (range resistance) – 1.4136
R4 (range breakout) – 1.4173
S1 – 1.4087
S2 – 1.4074
S3 (range support) – 1.4062
S4 (range breakout) – 1.4025
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.4306
R1 – 1.4502
R2 – 1.4886
R3 – 1.5082
S1 – 1.3922
S2 – 1.3726
S3 – 1.3342
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
