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Forex Market: GBP/USD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw GBP/USD within the range of 1.4446-1.4579. The pair closed at 1.4523, rising 0.34% on a daily basis. It has been the 11th gain in the past 28 trading days, a second consecutive one and also the sharpest one since February 3rd. In addition, the daily high has been the highest level since February 5th, when a high of 1.4594 was registered.

At 7:41 GMT today GBP/USD was edging down 0.10% for the day to trade at 1.4508. The pair touched a daily low at 1.4505 at 7:40 GMT, overshooting the daily S1 level, and a daily high at 1.4564 during early Asian trade.

On Thursday GBP/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic report as listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on February 5th, probably fell to 281 000, according to market expectations, from 285 000 reported in the preceding week.

The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 284 750, marking an increase by 2 000 compared to the preceding weeks revised down average.

The business week, which ended on January 29th has been the 47th consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold, which implied a healthy labor market.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or fell further, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably fell to the seasonally adjusted 2 250 000 during the business week ended on January 22nd from 2 255 000 in the preceding week. The latter represented a decrease by 18 000 compared to the revised up number of claims reported in the week ended on January 15th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.

The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 13:30 GMT.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.4535
R2 – 1.4547
R3 (range resistance) – 1.4560
R4 (range breakout) – 1.4596

S1 – 1.4511
S2 – 1.4499
S3 (range support) – 1.4486
S4 (range breakout) – 1.4450

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.4466
R1 – 1.4707
R2 – 1.4912
R3 – 1.5153

S1 – 1.4261
S2 – 1.4020
S3 – 1.3815

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