Forex Market: AUD/USD daily trading outlook

Yesterdays trade saw AUD/USD within the range of 0.7097-0.7172. The pair closed at 0.7146, going up 0.44% on a daily basis. It has been the 15th gain in the past 30 trading days and also the steepest one since February 4th, when the pair rose 0.46%. In addition, the daily high has been the highest level since February 5th, when a high of 0.7229 was recorded.

At 9:41 GMT today AUD/USD was gaining 0.43% on the day to trade at 0.7176. The pair touched a daily high at 0.7182 at 8:15 GMT, undershooting the upper range breakout level (R4), and a daily low at 0.7131 during the early hours of the Asian trading session.

On Tuesday AUD/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

New York Empire State Manufacturing Index

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index probably improved to a value of -10.00 in February, according to the median forecast by experts, from -19.37 in January. The latter has been the lowest level since March 2009, as the sub-indexes of new orders and shipments went down sharply, while labor market conditions in the sector continued to worsen. If market expectations were met, February would be the seventh straight month, when the gauge inhabited negative territory.

The index is based on the monthly Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which is conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. About 200 top manufacturing executives respond to a questionnaire, sent out during the first day of the month. They provide their estimates in regard to the performance of several business indicators from the prior month, while also forecasting performance during the upcoming six months.

Readings below 0.00 are indicative of worsening business conditions in the region. Lower-than-anticipated index values will usually have a moderate bearish effect on the US dollar. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is expected to release the official reading at 13:30 GMT.

NAHB Housing Market Index

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index probably remained at 60.0 for the second consecutive month in February, according to market expectations. If so, this would be the 20th consecutive month, when the gauge stood in the area above 50.0. In December the index was reported at 61.0. The indicator is based on a monthly survey in regard to current home sales and expected sales in the coming six months. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate that housing market conditions are good. Therefore, higher-than-projected readings would provide a moderate support to the US dollar. The official report is scheduled for release at 15:00 GMT.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

R1 – 0.7153
R2 – 0.7160
R3 (range resistance) – 0.7168
R4 (range breakout) – 0.7188

S1 – 0.7139
S2 – 0.7131
S3 (range support) – 0.7124
S4 (range breakout) – 0.7105

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 0.7080
R1 – 0.7188
R2 – 0.7270
R3 – 0.7378

S1 – 0.6998
S2 – 0.6890
S3 – 0.6808