Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.1125-1.1253. The pair closed at 1.1176, falling 0.43% on a daily basis. It has been the 15th drop in the past 31 trading days and also a second consecutive one. The daily low has been the lowest level since February 8th, when a low of 1.1084 was registered.
At 7:24 GMT today EUR/USD was edging down 0.10% for the day to trade at 1.1165. The pair touched a daily high at 1.1183 during the early phase of the Asian trading session, undershooting the daily R1 level, and a daily low at 1.1147 at 4:15 GMT.
On Tuesday EUR/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
Euro area
ZEW Survey
The gauge of economic sentiment in Germany probably plunged to a reading of 0.0 in February, according to the median forecast by experts, from 10.2 in January. If so, Februarys reading would be the lowest since October 2014, when the gauge inhabited negative territory.
The ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) economic expectations index is reported on a monthly basis. The study encompasses up to 350 financial and economic analysts. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of analysts, that are optimistic and those, that are pessimistic about the expected economic development in Germany over the next six months. A positive value indicates that the proportion of optimists is larger than that of pessimists. A ZEW reading of -100 suggests that all analysts are pessimistic about the current developments and expect economic conditions to deteriorate. A ZEW reading of 100 implies that all analysts are optimistic about the current situation and expect conditions to improve. A ZEW reading of 0 indicates neutrality.
The index of current assessment in Germany probably slowed down to 55.5 in February, according to market expectations, from a reading of 59.7 registered in January. The latter has been the highest index value since September 2015, when a reading of 67.5 was reported.
The ZEW Economic Sentiment index for the whole Euro region probably dropped for a second straight month in February, going down to a reading of 10.3, according to market expectations. If so, it would be the lowest level since October 2014, when the gauge stood at 4.1.
In case the German index of economic sentiment decreased at a sharper pace than expected, this would have a strong bearish effect on the common currency. The official readings are scheduled to be released at 10:00 GMT.
United States
New York Empire State Manufacturing Index
The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index probably improved to a value of -10.00 in February, according to the median forecast by experts, from -19.37 in January. The latter has been the lowest level since March 2009, as the sub-indexes of new orders and shipments went down sharply, while labor market conditions in the sector continued to worsen. If market expectations were met, February would be the seventh straight month, when the gauge inhabited negative territory.
The index is based on the monthly Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which is conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. About 200 top manufacturing executives respond to a questionnaire, sent out during the first day of the month. They provide their estimates in regard to the performance of several business indicators from the prior month, while also forecasting performance during the upcoming six months.
Readings below 0.00 are indicative of worsening business conditions in the region. Lower-than-anticipated index values will usually have a moderate bearish effect on the US dollar. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is expected to release the official reading at 13:30 GMT.
NAHB Housing Market Index
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index probably remained at 60.0 for the second consecutive month in February, according to market expectations. If so, this would be the 20th consecutive month, when the gauge stood in the area above 50.0. In December the index was reported at 61.0. The indicator is based on a monthly survey in regard to current home sales and expected sales in the coming six months. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate that housing market conditions are good. Therefore, higher-than-projected readings would provide a moderate support to the US dollar. The official report is scheduled for release at 15:00 GMT.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.1188
R2 – 1.1200
R3 (range resistance) – 1.1212
R4 (range breakout) – 1.1246
S1 – 1.1164
S2 – 1.1153
S3 (range support) – 1.1141
S4 (range breakout) – 1.1106
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.1241
R1 – 1.1397
R2 – 1.1535
R3 – 1.1691
S1 – 1.1103
S2 – 1.0947
S3 – 1.0809
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