Forex Market: USD/CAD daily trading outlook

Friday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.3164-1.3368. The pair closed at 1.3210, depreciating 1.02% on a daily basis. It has been the 24th drop in the past 49 trading days. The daily low has been the lowest level since November 6th 2015, when a low of 1.3153 was registered. In weekly terms, USD/CAD fell 0.79% during the past week, while marking its 8th straight week of decline. USD/CAD has lost 2.05% of its value so far during the current month, following a 3.10% slump in February.

At 8:12 GMT today USD/CAD was gaining 0.22% on the day to trade at 1.3266. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3273 at 8:02 GMT, overshooting the range resistance level (R3), and a daily low at 1.3211 during mid-Asian trade.

Canada’s dollar reached a fresh 4-month high against its US counterpart on Friday, as crude oil futures advanced to highs unseen since December 7th 2015. March 11th marked the 32nd gain in oil prices out of the past 61 trading days. Oil futures for April delivery went up as high as $39.02 per barrel on March 11th and closed at $38.50, soaring 1.74% on the day. As of 8:20 GMT today the commodity was losing 0.68% on a daily basis to trade at $38.12 per barrel, after going down as low as $38.08 earlier. Oil has reduced gains to 12.98% so far during the current month.

No relevant macroeconomic reports and other events, which may influence USD/CAD trading, are scheduled on Monday.

Correlation with other Majors

Taking into account the week ended on March 11th and the daily closing levels of the major currency pairs, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

USD/CAD to USD/CHF (0.2483, or weak)
USD/CAD to NZD/USD (-0.0066, or very weak)
USD/CAD to EUR/USD (-0.1315, or weak)
USD/CAD to GBP/USD (-0.5869, or strong)
USD/CAD to AUD/USD (-0.8466, or very strong)
USD/CAD to USD/JPY (-0.9437, or very strong)

1. During the examined period USD/CAD moved strongly in the opposite direction compared to GBP/USD.

2. USD/CAD moved almost equally in the opposite direction compared to AUD/USD and USD/JPY during the past week. This relationship has been the most pronounced between USD/CAD and USD/JPY.

3. The correlation between USD/CAD and USD/CHF, USD/CAD and EUR/USD was insignificant.

4. USD/CAD moved almost independently compared to NZD/USD during the period in question. The correlation between the two pairs was almost non-existent.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.3229
R2 – 1.3247
R3 (range resistance) – 1.3266
R4 (range breakout) – 1.3322

S1 – 1.3191
S2 – 1.3173
S3 (range support) – 1.3154
S4 (range breakout) – 1.3098

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.3274
R1 – 1.3383
R2 – 1.3557
R3 – 1.3666

S1 – 1.3100
S2 – 1.2991
S3 – 1.2817