Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.3197-1.3298. The pair closed at 1.3245, rising 0.31% on a daily basis. It has been the 31st gain in the past 58 trading days and also a second consecutive one. The daily high has been the highest level since March 16th, when a high of 1.3407 was registered. USD/CAD has lost 2.19% of its value so far during the current month.
At 7:32 GMT today USD/CAD was inching down 0.02% on the day to trade at 1.3243. The pair touched a daily low at 1.3234 during the early phase of the Asian trading session, overshooting the daily S1 level, and a daily high at 1.3262 during mid-Asian trade.
Canada’s dollar continued losing ground against its US counterpart on Thursday, as crude oil futures fell for a second consecutive trading day. March 24th marked the 34th drop in oil prices out of the past 70 trading days. Oil futures for May delivery went down as low as $38.33 per barrel on March 24th, or the lowest level since March 16th, and closed at $39.46, tumbling 0.83% on the day.
On Friday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic report listed below.
Fundamentals
United States
Gross Domestic Product – final estimate
The final estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product probably pointed to an annualized rate of growth of 1.0% in the final quarter of 2015. If so, it would confirm the 2nd GDP estimate, reported on February 26th. The 2nd estimate outpaced the preliminary one, because business inventories were revised up, while the negative impact from trade was lower than anticipated, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
According to the February 26th report, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) contributed 1.38 percentage points to US growth, as it increased 2% in Q4. The preliminary GDP report pointed to a 2.2% PCE growth. Fixed investment grew 0.1% in the final quarter, down from a 0.2% increase in the preliminary report. Non-residential investment contracted 1.9% during the period compared to a 1.8% slump in the preliminary estimate, while residential investment rose 8%, slowing down from an 8.1% growth in the preliminary release.
Private inventories subtracted 0.14 percentage points from US growth in Q4, as business entities accumulated inventories at the amount of USD 81.7 billion compared to USD 68.6 billion, as reported previously.
International trade subtracted 0.25 percentage points from growth in Q4 compared to -0.47 percentage points in the preliminary report. US exports contracted 2.7% in the final quarter of 2015 compared to a 2.5% decline in the preliminary release, while US imports fell 0.6% during the period compared to a 1.1% surge reported previously.
In case the final GDP exceeded market expectations, this would have a strong bullish effect on the US dollar. The official report is due out at 12:30 GMT.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.3254
R2 – 1.3264
R3 (range resistance) – 1.3273
R4 (range breakout) – 1.3301
S1 – 1.3236
S2 – 1.3226
S3 (range support) – 1.3217
S4 (range breakout) – 1.3189
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.3109
R1 – 1.3298
R2 – 1.3596
R3 – 1.3785
S1 – 1.2811
S2 – 1.2622
S3 – 1.2324
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