Forex Market: GBP/BGN trading outlook for March 28th

Friday’s trade saw GBP/BGN within the range of 2.4399-2.4697. The pair closed at 2.4414, plummeting 1.12% on a daily basis. It has been the 13th drop in the past 22 trading days and also a third consecutive one. The daily low has been the lowest level since November 20th 2014, when a low of 2.4356 was registered. In weekly terms, GBP/BGN lost 1.47% of its value during the current week. It has been the 10th drop in the past 13 weeks, a fourth consecutive one and also the sharpest one since the week ended on February 28th. GBP/BGN depreciated 1.36% in March to mark its fourth successive month of decline.

On Monday (April 4th) GBP/BGN trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic report listed below.

Fundamentals

United Kingdom

Construction PMI by Markit/CIPS

Activity in United Kingdom’s sector of construction probably increased at a slower pace in March from a month ago, with the corresponding Purchasing Managers Index coming in at 54.0, down from a reading of 54.2 in February. If so, March would be the 35th consecutive month, when the gauge inhabited the area above 50.0. The index is based on a survey, encompassing managers of companies, operating in the construction sector. They are asked about their estimate regarding current business conditions (new orders, output, employment, demand in the future). Values above the key level of 50.0 signify predominant optimism in regard to business conditions. However, in case the PMI slowed down more than anticipated in March, this would have a limited-to-moderate bearish effect on the sterling. The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) is to release the official index reading at 8:30 GMT.

Correlation with other currency pairs

Taking into account the week ended on April 1st and the daily closing levels of the currency pairs involved, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

GBP/BGN to USD/CHF (0.8553, or very strong)
GBP/BGN to USD/JPY (0.8483, or very strong)
GBP/BGN to USD/BGN (0.7741, or strong)
GBP/BGN to USD/CAD (0.5313, or strong)
GBP/BGN to GBP/USD (0.5288, or strong)
GBP/BGN to CHF/BGN (0.2094, or weak)
GBP/BGN to NZD/USD (-0.5625, or strong)
GBP/BGN to AUD/USD (-0.6970, or strong)
GBP/BGN to EUR/USD (-0.7739, or strong)
GBP/BGN to DKK/BGN (-0.7904, or strong)

1. During the examined period GBP/BGN moved strongly in one and the same direction with GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/BGN, while moving strongly in the opposite direction compared to NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD and DKK/BGN.

2. The correlation between GBP/BGN and CHF/BGN was insignificant.

3. GBP/BGN moved almost equally in one and the same direction with USD/JPY and USD/CHF during the period in question.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the traditional calculation method, the Monday pivot levels for GBP/BGN are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 2.4503
R1 – 2.4608
R2 – 2.4801
R3 – 2.4906

S1 – 2.4310
S2 – 2.4205
S3 – 2.4012

By using the traditional method of calculation again, the weekly pivot levels for GBP/BGN are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 2.4598
R1 – 2.4798
R2 – 2.5181
R3 – 2.5381

S1 – 2.4215
S2 – 2.4015
S3 – 2.3632