Forex Market: USD/CAD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.3014-1.3181. The pair closed at 1.3145, edging up 0.43% on a daily basis. It has been the 37th gain in the past 68 trading days. The daily high has been a lower-high test of the high from April 6th. USD/CAD has increased its advance to 0.78% so far during the current month, following two straight months of decline.

At 6:44 GMT today USD/CAD was edging down 0.25% on the day to trade at 1.3112. The pair touched a daily low at 1.3092 at 6:23 GMT, overshooting the range support level (S3), and a daily high at 1.3156 during the early phase of the Asian trading session.

Canadas dollar pared recent gains against its US counterpart, as crude oil futures retreated on April 7th. Thursday marked the 39th drop in oil prices out of the past 79 trading days. Oil futures for May delivery went down as low as $36.69 per barrel on April 7th and closed at $37.26, retreating 1.30% on the day. As of 6:48 GMT today the commodity was gaining 1.93% to trade at $37.98, after going up as high as $38.12 per barrel earlier.

On Friday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic report listed below.

Fundamentals

Canada

Change in employment, Unemployment rate

The number of the employed people in Canada probably increased by 15 300 in March, according to market expectations. If so, this would be the steepest rate of increase in employment since October 2015. In February the number of the employed fell by 2 300 to 18 002 900.

In February, the number of part-time employed increased by 49 500, while the number of persons in full-time employment went down by 51 800. During the month employment was lower sectors such as health care and social assistance (-19 600), educational services (-16 900), “other services” (-14 900) and natural resources (-8 900). On the other hand, employment rose in sectors such as construction (+34 000), business, building and other support services (+12 700) and agriculture (+7 200).

Meanwhile, the rate of unemployment in the country probably remained at 7.3% for a second straight month in March, according to the median forecast by analysts. It has been the highest rate since March 2013. In January Canadas unemployment rate was reported at 7.2%.

A lower-than-expected rate of increase in employment and a surge in unemployment rate would have a strong bearish effect on the local currency. Statistics Canada is expected to release the official employment report at 12:30 GMT.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.3160
R2 – 1.3176
R3 (range resistance) – 1.3191
R4 (range breakout) – 1.3237

S1 – 1.3130
S2 – 1.3114
S3 (range support) – 1.3099
S4 (range breakout) – 1.3053

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.3051
R1 – 1.3245
R2 – 1.3478
R3 – 1.3672

S1 – 1.2818
S2 – 1.2624
S3 – 1.2391