Forex Market: USD/CAD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.2906-1.3015. The pair closed at 1.2959, edging up 0.39% on a daily basis. It has been the 46th gain in the past 90 trading days and also a second consecutive one. The daily high has been an exact test of the high from April 11th. The major pair has extended its advance to 3.13% so far during the current month, following three consecutive months of decline.

At 6:53 GMT today USD/CAD was inching down 0.09% on the day to trade at 1.2947. The pair touched a daily high at 1.2978 during the early phase of the Asian trading session, undershooting the daily R2 level, and a daily low at 1.2944 at 6:48 GMT.

Meanwhile, crude oil futures marked their 46th drop out of the past 101 trading days on May 9th, due to concerns that the wildfire in the Canadian oil sands area trimmed the daily production capacity by over a million barrels. This lost capacity equals roughly one third of the nations regular oil output per day. Oil futures for June delivery went down as low as $43.21 per barrel on May 9th, or the lowest price level since April 26th, and closed at $43.27, losing 3.01% compared to Friday’s close. As of 7:07 GMT today the commodity was gaining 0.92% to trade at $43.67, after going up as high as $43.70 per barrel earlier.

On Tuesday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic report listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Job Openings

The number of job openings in the United States probably decreased to 5.412 million in March from a month ago, according to the median forecast by experts. If so, this would be the lowest number of job openings since October 2015, when a revised down 5.349 million positions were reported. In February a total of 5.445 million job openings were estimated, as the number of job openings waiting to be filled fell by 177 000 in the private sector and was almost unchanged in the governmental sector. In February there were fewer job openings in health care and social assistance (-147 000), finance and insurance (-54 000), and mining and logging (-8 000). At the same time, the number of job openings rose in educational services (+48 000) and federal government (+19 000).

This indicator refers to all job positions that are open, but not filled on the last business day of the month. Job openings are part of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which gathers data from about 16 400 non-farm establishments including retailers and manufacturers, as well as federal, state, and local government entities in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The survey assesses the unmet demand for labor in the labor market. A lower-than-projected level of job openings will usually have a limited bearish effect on the US dollar. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is to release the official report at 14:00 GMT.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.2969
R2 – 1.2979
R3 (range resistance) – 1.2989
R4 (range breakout) – 1.3019

S1 – 1.2949
S2 – 1.2939
S3 (range support) – 1.2929
S4 (range breakout) – 1.2898

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.2773
R1 – 1.3089
R2 – 1.3268
R3 – 1.3584

S1 – 1.2594
S2 – 1.2278
S3 – 1.2099