Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.2671-1.2765. The pair closed at 1.2732, going up 0.29% on a daily basis. It has been the 57th gain in the past 113 trading days. The daily high has been a higher-high test of the high from June 8th. The major pair has gone down 2.75% so far in June, following a 4.31% surge in the prior month.
At 7:16 GMT today USD/CAD was inching down 0.02% on the day to trade at 1.2730. The pair touched a daily high at 1.2744 during the late phase of the Asian trading session, overshooting the daily R1 level, and a daily low at 1.2719 at 6:11 GMT.
Canadas dollar retreated from 1-month highs against its US counterpart, as crude oil futures fell from highs unseen since July 16th 2015 on Thursday. Crude oil marked its 56th drop out of the past 124 trading days on June 9th. Oil for July delivery went down as low as $50.23 per barrel and closed at $50.56, tumbling 1.31% compared to Wednesday’s close. As of 7:29 GMT today the commodity was losing 0.95% to trade at $50.08, after going down as low as $49.91 per barrel earlier, or its lowest level since June 7th.
On Friday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
United States
Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – preliminary reading
The monthly survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan may show that consumer confidence in the United States was lower in June. The preliminary reading of the corresponding index, which usually comes out two weeks ahead of the final data, probably fell to 94.0 during the current month from a final reading of 94.7 in May. The latter came below the preliminary reading of 95.8, which was reported on May 13th. Still, the final index reading for May has been the highest since June 2015. Back then the gauge was reported at a final 96.1.
The sub-index of current economic conditions rose to a final reading of 109.9 in May, or the highest since January 2007, while improving from a preliminary value of 108.6. In April this barometer was reported at a final 106.7.
The sub-index of consumer expectations came in at a reading of 84.9, down from a preliminary value of 87.5 in May, but improving from a final reading of 77.6 registered in April.
Participants in the May survey expected that the rate of inflation will be at 2.4% during the next year, or down from a rate of 2.5% in the preliminary release and 2.8%, as expected in April.
In case the gauge of consumer sentiment fell at a steeper pace than projected in June, this would have a moderate-to-strong bearish effect on the US dollar. The preliminary reading is due out at 14:00 GMT.
Canada
Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
The number of the employed people in Canada probably increased by 3 800 in May, according to market expectations, following an unexpected drop by 2 400 in April to 18.041 million.
In April, the number of part-time employed persons increased by 400, while the number of persons in full-time employment went down by 2 400. During the month employment was lower in sectors such as manufacturing (-17 000), business, building and other support services (-16 000), “other services” (-12 000), natural resources (-7 800) and agriculture (-7 000). At the same time, employment rose in wholesale and retail trade (+27 000) and accommodation and food services (+22 000).
Meanwhile, the rate of unemployment in the country probably remained at 7.1% for a third consecutive month in May, according to the median forecast by analysts. In April the number of people unemployed fell by 1 700 to reach 1 383 200, while the labor force shrank by 3 800 to 19 424 600. Youth unemployment slumped to 13.1% in April from 13.4% a month ago.
A higher-than-expected rate of increase in employment and a stable or even lower unemployment rate would have a strong bullish effect on the local currency, due to positive implications in regard to consumer spending. Statistics Canada is expected to release the official employment report at 12:30 GMT.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.2741
R2 – 1.2750
R3 (range resistance) – 1.2758
R4 (range breakout) – 1.2784
S1 – 1.2723
S2 – 1.2715
S3 (range support) – 1.2706
S4 (range breakout) – 1.2680
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.2997
R1 – 1.3082
R2 – 1.3231
R3 – 1.3316
S1 – 1.2848
S2 – 1.2763
S3 – 1.2614
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