Forex Market: USD/CAD daily trading outlook

Friday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.2826-1.2970. The pair closed at 1.2895, losing 0.56% on a daily basis. It has been the 56th drop in the past 119 trading days and also the steepest one since June 7th, when the pair fell 0.64%. In weekly terms, USD/CAD added 0.86% to its value last week. It has been the 7th gain in the past 24 weeks. USD/CAD has gone down 1.96% so far in June, following a 4.31% surge in the prior month.

At 8:09 GMT today USD/CAD was losing 0.49% on the day to trade at 1.2833. The pair touched a daily high at 1.2863 during the early phase of the Asian trading session, almost immediately after gapping down, and a daily low at 1.2826 at 7:42 GMT.

Canadas dollar broke a six-day losing streak against its US counterpart on Friday, as crude oil futures ended a six-day string of declines as well. Crude oil marked its 69th gain out of the past 130 trading days on June 17th. Oil for August delivery went up as high as $48.29 per barrel and closed at $47.98, rising 3.83% compared to Thursday’s close. As of 8:33 GMT today the commodity was gaining 2.88% to trade at $49.39, after going up as high as $49.51 per barrel earlier, as fears surrounding the EU membership referendum in the UK seemed to have eased. The latter has been the highest price level since June 10th.

On Monday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic report as listed below.

Fundamentals

Canada

Wholesale Sales

Wholesale sales in Canada probably rose 0.5% in April compared to a month ago, according to market expectations. In March compared to February the value of sales made by wholesalers in the country decreased 1.0%. Higher wholesales are indicative of a more active retail trade and, respectively, consumption. Therefore, a larger-than-projected increase in wholesale sales would have a limited-to-moderate bullish effect on the Canadian Dollar. Statistics Canada is to release the official data at 12:30 GMT.

Correlation with other Majors

Taking into account the business week ended on June 10th and the daily closing levels of the major currency pairs, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

USD/CAD to AUD/USD (0.4713, or moderate)
USD/CAD to GBP/USD (0.1346, or weak)
USD/CAD to NZD/USD (-0.0088, or very weak)
USD/CAD to EUR/USD (-0.1292, or weak)
USD/CAD to USD/CHF (-0.3503, or moderate)
USD/CAD to USD/JPY (-0.5224, or strong)

1. During the examined period USD/CAD moved strongly in the opposite direction compared to USD/JPY.

2. USD/CAD moved almost independently compared to NZD/USD during the past week. The correlation between the two pairs was almost non-existent.

3. The correlation between USD/CAD and GBP/USD, USD/CAD and EUR/USD was insignificant.

Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.2908
R2 – 1.2921
R3 (range resistance) – 1.2935
R4 (range breakout) – 1.2974

S1 – 1.2882
S2 – 1.2869
S3 (range support) – 1.2855
S4 (range breakout) – 1.2816

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.2910
R1 – 1.3073
R2 – 1.3251
R3 – 1.3414

S1 – 1.2732
S2 – 1.2569
S3 – 1.2391

In monthly terms, for USD/CAD we have the following pivots:

Central Pivot Point – 1.2914
R1 – 1.3317
R2 – 1.3646
R3 – 1.4102

S1 – 1.2638
S2 – 1.2182
S3 – 1.1906