Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.2994-1.3121. The pair closed at 1.3071, rising 0.50% compared to Fridays close. It has been the 154th gain in the past 281 trading days and also a second consecutive one. The daily high has been the highest level since June 2nd, when a high of 1.3145 was registered. The major pair has increased its loss to 0.76% so far in June, following a 4.31% surge in the prior month.
At 7:30 GMT today USD/CAD was losing 0.67% on the day to trade at 1.2984. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3087 during the early phase of the Asian trading session, overshooting the daily R1 level, and a daily low at 1.2984 during early European trade.
Meanwhile, crude oil futures marked their 64th drop out of the past 136 trading days on June 27th. Oil for August delivery went down as low as $45.84 per barrel, or its lowest price level since May 13th, and closed at $46.33, plunging 2.75% compared to Friday’s close. As of 7:54 GMT today the commodity was gaining 2.03% to trade at $47.27, after going up as high as $47.42 per barrel earlier.
On Tuesday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
United States
Gross Domestic Product – final estimate
The final estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product probably pointed to an annualized rate of growth of 1.0% in the first quarter of 2016. If so, it would exceed the 2nd GDP estimate, reported on May 27th, pointing to a 0.8% growth. The flash estimate revealed a 0.5% surge in Q1.
According to the May 27th report, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) added 1.29 percentage points to growth, up from 1.27 percentage point in the preliminary estimate, while rising at an annualized 1.9% in Q1. Fixed investment subtracted 0.25 percentage points from growth (-0.27% in the preliminary estimate), while shrinking 1.5% during the period. Non-residential investment decreased 6.2% in Q1, accelerating from a 5.9% decline in the preliminary estimate, while residential investment expanded 17.1%, accelerating from a 14.8% surge in the preliminary report.
Private inventories subtracted 0.20 percentage points from US growth in Q1 2016, as business entities accumulated inventories at the amount of USD 69.6 billion compared to USD 60.9 billion, as reported previously.
International trade subtracted 0.21 percentage points from growth in Q1 compared to -0.34 percentage points in the preliminary report. US exports contracted 2.0% in the first quarter of 2016 compared to a 2.6% decline in the preliminary release, while US imports fell 0.2% during the period compared to a 0.2% surge reported previously.
In case the final GDP met or even exceeded market expectations in Q1, this would certainly heighten the appeal of the US dollar. The official report is due out at 12:30 GMT.
S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index
At 13:00 GMT Standard & Poors/Case-Schiller will report on the performance of their House Price Index, which measures the change in values of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas across the United States. The report serves as a gauge of the US housing markets health. According to the median estimate by experts, home prices in the 20 areas probably rose 5.5% in April compared to April 2015, following a 5.4% surge in March. If expectations were met, Aprils rate of increase would be the sharpest one since January, when home values climbed 5.7% year-on-year. Within a recovering economy, a sharper-than-projected gain in prices will usually have a limited-to-moderate bullish effect on the local currency.
Consumer Confidence Index by the Conference Board
Confidence among consumers in the United States probably improved in June, with the corresponding index coming in at a reading of 93.3, according to market expectations. In May the gauge was reported at 92.6, or the lowest level since February.
This indicator measures the level of individuals confidence in the US economic development. It is considered as a leading indicator, as it gives an early insight into consumer spending, which accounts for a major part of the nations GDP.
In case the index came above expectations, this would have a strong bullish effect on the US dollar, as higher confidence suggests a greater willingness to spend and, respectively, an accelerated economic growth. The Conference Board research group is to publish the official index reading at 14:00 GMT.
Bond Yield Spread
The yield on Canada’s 2-year government bonds went as high as 0.543% on June 27th, after which it closed at 0.488% to lose 5.4 basis points (0.054 percentage point) compared to June 24th.
Meanwhile, the yield on US 2-year government bonds climbed as high as 0.605% on June 27th, after which it fell to 0.594% at the close to lose 4.3 basis points (0.043 percentage point) compared to June 24th.
The spread between 2-year US and 2-year Canadian bond yields, which reflects the flow of funds in a short term, rose to 0.106% on June 27th from 0.095% on June 24th. The June 27th yield spread has been the largest one since June 23rd, when the difference was 0.159%.
Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.3083
R2 – 1.3094
R3 (range resistance) – 1.3106
R4 (range breakout) – 1.3141
S1 – 1.3059
S2 – 1.3048
S3 (range support) – 1.3036
S4 (range breakout) – 1.3001
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.2927
R1 – 1.3179
R2 – 1.3353
R3 – 1.3605
S1 – 1.2753
S2 – 1.2501
S3 – 1.2327
In monthly terms, for USD/CAD we have the following pivots:
Central Pivot Point – 1.2914
R1 – 1.3317
R2 – 1.3646
R3 – 1.4102
S1 – 1.2638
S2 – 1.2182
S3 – 1.1906
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
