Forex Market: AUD/USD trading outlook for August 8th

Friday’s trade (in GMT terms) saw AUD/USD within the range of 0.7597-0.7666. The pair closed at 0.7619, edging down 0.12% compared to Thursdays close. It has been the 20th drop in the past 42 trading days. The daily high has been the highest level since July 15th, when a high of 0.7678 was registered. In weekly terms, AUD/USD added 0.24% to its value during the current week. It has been the 18th gain in the past 31 weeks and also a second consecutive one. The major pair has gone up 0.24% so far during the current month, following a 2.03% advance in June.

On Monday (August 8th) AUD/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic report listed below.

Fundamentals

Australia

ANZ Job Advertisements

At 1:30 GMT the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) will publish data regarding the number of job advertisements in Australia in July. It encompasses advertisements in the major metropolitan newspapers and on the Internet sites. The corresponding index, based on a survey by the ANZ, increased at a monthly rate of 0.5% to 158 810 advertisements in June compared to May.

Internet job advertisements were 0.6% more in June, after a 2.6% surge in the preceding month. At the same time, newspaper job advertisements fell 5.3% during the same period, following another 12.6% slump in May.

This indicator is used for projecting employment growth in Australia, as it reflects labor market conditions in the future. An increase in the number of jobs would have a limited bullish effect on the Australian dollar, while a decrease would have the opposite effect.

Correlation with other Majors

Taking into account the business week ended on August 5th and the daily closing levels of the currency pairs involved, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

AUD/USD to USD/CHF (0.4036, or moderate)
AUD/USD to NZD/USD (0.0602, or very weak)
AUD/USD to GBP/USD (-0.2030, or weak)
AUD/USD to USD/CAD (-0.2339, or weak)
AUD/USD to EUR/USD (-0.2649, or weak)
AUD/USD to USD/JPY (-0.6904, or strong)

1. During the examined period AUD/USD moved strongly in the opposite direction compared to USD/JPY.

2. AUD/USD moved almost independently compared to NZD/USD during the week.

3. The correlation between AUD/USD and GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD, AUD/USD and EUR/USD was insignificant.

Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot Levels

By employing the traditional calculation method, the Monday levels of importance for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 0.7627
R1 – 0.7658
R2 – 0.7696
R3 – 0.7727
R4 – 0.7757

S1 – 0.7589
S2 – 0.7558
S3 – 0.7520
S4 – 0.7481

By using the traditional method of calculation again, the weekly levels of importance for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 0.7591
R1 – 0.7694
R2 – 0.7768
R3 – 0.7871
R4 – 0.7973

S1 – 0.7517
S2 – 0.7414
S3 – 0.7340
S4 – 0.7265

In monthly terms, for AUD/USD we have the following pivots:

Central Pivot Point – 0.7562
R1 – 0.7717
R2 – 0.7832
R3 – 0.7987
R4 – 0.8141

S1 – 0.7447
S2 – 0.7292
S3 – 0.7177
S4 – 0.7061