Gold trading outlook: futures edge up during European trade as the United States elect the nation’s 45th President

On Monday (in GMT terms) gold for delivery in December traded within the range of $1,278.6-$1,296.5. Futures closed at $1,279.4, retreating 1.92% compared to Friday’s close. It has been the 198th drop in the past 375 trading days and also the steepest one since October 4th. The daily low has been a level not seen since November 1st, when a low of $1,276.3 a troy ounce was registered. The precious metal has trimmed its advance to 0.49% so far during the current month, after losing 3.34% in October.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for delivery in December were edging up 0.38% on Tuesday to trade at $1,284.2 per troy ounce. The precious metal went up as high as $1,285.8 during early European trade, while the current daily low was at $1,281.2 per troy ounce, recorded during the early phase of the Asian trading session.

The US Dollar Index, a gauge reflecting the relative strength of the greenback against a basket of 6 other major currencies, was edging down 0.10% on the day at a level of 97.68, after going down as low as 97.56 earlier. Last Friday the index fell to 96.94, or a level not seen since October 11th. The gauge has trimmed its slump to 0.75% so far in November, following a 3.18% advance in October.

Demand for haven assets was curbed yesterday, pushing gold to 1-week lows, following news in the media that the Federal Bureau of Investigation cleared the case involving Democratic candidate Hillary Clintons private email server use. Over the weekend, FBI Director, James Comey, told Congress that the Bureau had “not changed its conclusions” on the Democrats case, which eased market concerns regarding Clintons presidential campaign.

Today the US citizens elect the 45th President of the country. The first exit polls are scheduled to come out later on Tuesday (at 7:00 PM ET, or 0:00 GMT on Wednesday), while in case of a clear outcome, television networks will probably make an official announcement at 11:00 PM ET (or 4:00 GMT on Wednesday).

The final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project revealed that Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, had approximately a 90% chance of winning the election. Such an outcome would increase investor risk appetite and would mount pressure on haven assets, respectively.

Meanwhile, medium-term rate hike expectations increased.

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, as of November 7th, market players saw a 71.5% chance of a rate hike occurring at the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in December, up from 66.8% in the prior business day, and a 73.3% chance of a hike in February 2017, up from 68.8% in the preceding business day. As far as the March 15th 2017 meeting is concerned, the probability of such a move was seen at 74.5% on November 7th, up from 70.2% in the prior business day.

Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily levels of importance for gold are presented as follows:

R1 – $1,281.0
R2 – $1,282.7
R3 (Range Resistance – Sell) – $1,284.3
R4 (Long Breakout) – $1,289.2
R5 (Breakout Target 1) – $1,295.0
R6 (Breakout Target 2) – $1,297.3

S1 – $1,277.8
S2 – $1,276.1
S3 (Range Support – Buy) – $1,274.5
S4 (Short Breakout) – $1,269.6
S5 (Breakout Target 1) – $1,263.8
S6 (Breakout Target 2) – $1,261.5

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly levels of importance for gold are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – $1,295.2
R1 – $1,318.6
R2 – $1,332.6
R3 – $1,356.0
R4 – $1,379.3

S1 – $1,281.2
S2 – $1,257.8
S3 – $1,243.8
S4 – $1,229.7

In monthly terms, for the yellow metal we have the following pivots:

Central Pivot Point – $1,279.6
R1 – $1,316.1
R2 – $1,359.0
R3 – $1,395.5
R4 – $1,431.9

S1 – $1,236.7
S2 – $1,200.2
S3 – $1,157.3
S4 – $1,114.3