Key Moments
- Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $61.10 in Asian dealings, extending gains from Friday.
- US 10-year Treasury yields ease to near 5.24% from 5.36% as oil drops about 2% to roughly $89.00.
- Traders turn attention to US September CPI data scheduled for release on Wednesday.
Macro Drivers Support Silver Prices
Silver prices (XAG/USD) are trading higher around $61.10 in Asian hours on Monday, maintaining the advance seen on Friday. The metal is benefiting from softer United States bond yields following a decline in oil prices after a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire was announced by US President Donald Trump.
At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is lower by 2% near $89.00. In tandem, 10-year US Treasury yields are subdued around 5.24%, having retreated from an over two-decade high of 5.36% reached on Friday. US bond markets remain closed on Monday due to the Columbus Day holiday.
From a theoretical standpoint, a pullback in US bond yields tends to offer support to non-yielding assets such as silver, as the opportunity cost of holding them decreases.
Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire Calms Market Nerves
Over the weekend, President Trump stated via a post on Truth Social that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire. The arrangement is described as a temporary deal under which both sides agree to halt strikes on energy facilities. Ukraine had been intensifying attacks on Moscow’s energy infrastructure in an effort to limit its funding.
“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” Trump wrote.
The Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire is providing some relief to global markets against a backdrop of already tight energy supplies linked to tensions in the Middle East.
This development follows Trump’s comments on Friday that he had reached an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin under which Russia would supply diesel in stages.
Focus Shifts to Upcoming US CPI Data
With bond markets shut for the holiday and the immediate geopolitical shock partly absorbed, investors are now awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September, scheduled for release on Wednesday. The data is expected to be a key input for market expectations around US inflation dynamics and potential implications for interest rates, which in turn can influence silver’s appeal.
Technical Picture: XAG/USD Faces Overhead Hurdles
On the daily chart, XAG/USD is trading near $61.02, retaining a bearish short-term tone as spot prices remain below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $62.07. After retreating from recent peaks, silver is now sitting beneath this short-term trend indicator, implying that rallies may continue to encounter selling pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44, which places it in a neutral-to-soft range. This configuration signals ongoing downward pressure rather than conditions of oversold exhaustion.
| Indicator | Level | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Spot price (XAG/USD) | $61.02 | Trades below short-term trend gauge |
| 20-day EMA | $62.07 | Immediate resistance; key for easing downside bias |
| RSI (daily) | 44 | Neutral-to-soft; suggests persistent downside pressure |
On the upside, initial resistance is aligned with the 20-day EMA near $62.07. A daily close above this level would be required to soften the current negative bias and pave the way for a more durable recovery. With no nearby support levels specified by the given indicators, price action around this moving average remains the primary technical focus. Failure to regain this threshold is likely to leave XAG/USD exposed to further downside moves toward previous lows visible on the chart.
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