Forex Market: EUR/GBP daily outlook

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/GBP traded within the range of 0.8263-0.8322 and closed at 0.8274.

At 7:26 GMT today EUR/GBP was losing 0.03% for the day to trade at 0.8270. The pair touched a daily low at 0.8267 at 7:10 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

French annualized index of consumer spending probably rose 0.9% in February, according to preliminary estimates, after a month ago it dropped 0.5%. This indicator reflects the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted consumer expenditures and provides a short-term view on consumer attitude in the country. The official index reading is to be released at 7:45 GMT.

Euro zones gauge of economic sentiment probably improved to a reading of 101.3 in March from 101.2 during February. This is a compound index, that is comprised of five sub-indexes, reflecting sentiment in different sectors of the economy. It includes consumer confidence, industrial confidence, confidence in the sector of services, confidence in the retail trade sector and confidence in the sector of construction. Readings above the key level of 100.0 are indicative that optimistic forecasts overwhelm pessimistic ones. The more readings distance from it, the stronger economic confidence is. The official reading is due out at 10:00 GMT.

At the same time, the preliminary annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) in Germany probably slowed down to 1.1% in March from 1.2% in the preceding month. In monthly terms, the CPI probably increased 0.4% this month, after consumer prices climbed 0.5% in February.

Germanys preliminary annualized index of consumer prices, evaluated in accordance with Eurostats harmonized methodology, probably was 0.9% in March, after reaching 1.0% in February. If the CPI accelerates more than expected, this will heighten the appeal of the euro. The official data will be released at 13:00 GMT.

United Kingdom

United Kingdoms final annualized Gross Domestic Product probably expanded 2.7% during the last quarter of 2013, according to the median forecast by analysts, or matching the second (revised) GDP estimate, which was announced on February 26th. A better than anticipated GDP figure would bolster demand for the sterling. The official report is to be published at 9:30 GMT.

Total business investments in the United Kingdom, an indicator based on a quarterly survey on capital expenditures of 32 000 companies in countrys private sector, probably increased 8.5% during Q4 2013 compared to Q4 2012. This final data would meet the preliminary result, reported on February 26th.

The deficit on nations current account probably shrank to 13.8 billion GBP during the fourth quarter of 2013 from a deficit of 20.7 billion GBP in Q3. The current account is one of the three key components to comprise UKs balance of payments. A lesser deficit than expected would provide a boost to the pound. The official figure is scheduled for release also at 9:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/GBP manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.8310, it will probably continue up to test 0.8345. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.8369.

If EUR/GBP manages to breach the first key support at 0.8251, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.8227. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.8192.