Forex Market: EUR/CAD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/CAD traded within the range of 1.5194-1.5259 and closed at 1.5206.

At 7:13 GMT today EUR/CAD was gaining 0.04% for the day to trade at 1.5206. The pair touched a daily high at 1.5210 at 2:35 GMT.

Fundamental view

Canada

Canada’s trade balance probably produced a surplus at the amount of 0.300 billion CAD during March, according to the median estimate by experts. In February, nation’s trade surplus was 0.29 billion CAD. Higher than projected surplus would be supportive for the loonie, as Canadian dollar is also known. Statistics Canada will release the official figure at 12:30 GMT.

Activity among purchasing managers in Canada probably increased in March, with the corresponding PMI coming in at a seasonally adjusted value of 59.0. In March the index stood at 55.2.

This indicator is based on a survey sponsored by Richard Ivey School of Business and Canadian Purchasing Management Association. It encompasses 175 respondents in both public and the private sector, selected in accordance with their geographic location and activity, so that the entire economy is covered. Activity among purchasing managers is closely watched by market players, as managers usually have an early access to data regarding performance of their companies, which could be used as a leading indicator of overall economic activity.

Readings above the key level of 50.0 are indicative of expansion in activity. Higher than expected readings of the PMI would bolster demand for the loonie. The official result is due out at 14:00 GMT.

Euro zone

The final reading of Germany’s Services PMI in March probably met the preliminary value at 55.0. The official reading is to be released at 7:55 GMT.

The final reading of Euro zone’s Services PMI probably coincided with the preliminary value of 53.1 last month. In case market expectations are exceeded, this will boost demand for the single currency. Markit Economics will report the official value at 8:00 GMT.

Annualized retail sales in the Euro region as a whole probably rose 0.9% in March, according to the median forecast of experts, after in February sales climbed 0.8%. In monthly terms, retail sales probably dropped 0.4% during March. This is a short-term indicator, which provides key information about consumption on a national scale. In case the index of retail sales rises at a faster than projected pace, this would have a bullish effect on the euro. Eurostat is expected to publish the official data at 9:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/CAD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.5245, it will probably continue up to test 1.5285. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.5310.

If EUR/CAD manages to breach the first key support at 1.5180, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.5155. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.5115.