Natural gas trading outlook: futures steady after dropping more than 9% over the last five sessions

Natural gas futures recovered earlier losses to trade even during morning trade in Europe. Reports of storms and cold in some regions pared warming in others. The West Coast will be significantly hotter, reaching all-time high figures in the next few days. The overall warming over the last week makes possible greater gains in inventories, pressuring the blue fuel.

Front month natural gas futures, due in June, added 0.09% at the New York Mercantile Exchange to trade for $4.438 per million British thermal units at 9:55 GMT. Prices ranged from $4.400 to $4.441 per mBtu, nearing the lowest level in a month. Yesterday the contract lost 2.14% on expectations of milder weather and growing supplies in top-consumer US, after losing a further 6.82% over the previous four sessions.

Weather reports project a stormy few days for the Northeast, with showers and thunderstorms, though some regions will be warming to well-above average. Over the second half of the week the strong storm will be moving through, bringing more heavy rains and possibly floods. The Midwest will see various patterns over the following days, with warmth and humidity in the lower Great Lakes area and the Ohio valley, while the Northern Plains will be cool and dry. A lower pressure system will keep the possibility of scattered showers and storms throughout the period. The West Coast will be very hot from today through to Friday, with record-pushing temperatures everywhere from Seattle to Los Angeles. In combination with low humidity, the heat is forecast to raise fire threats.

According to AccuWeather.com New York will be cloudy and rainy today, though temperatures will remain in average range of 54 to 70 degrees Fahrenheit. Over the following days the slowly-moving storm will still be producing rains and thunderstorms over the region, with overall normal readings. Boston will be cooler today with highs below 56 degrees, and lows at mid 40s. Rainy weather will remain through the week, with highs between 63 and 70 degrees, and lows at mid 50s. Chicago will also be rainy and cloudy, though there temperatures will be slightly lower than normal, ranging 46-64 degrees. Starting tomorrow, however, readings will plummet to range 42-55 over the next few days, about 10 degrees below average. On the West Coast, Los Angeles will be very hot, with forecasts of 97-99 degree highs through to Friday, 25 above normal. Seattle will also be significantly hotter, with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above average, reaching as high as 82 degrees Fahrenheit.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case natural gas for settlement in June penetrates the first resistance level at $4.523 per million British thermal units, it will encounter next resistance at $4.613. If breached, upside movement will probably attempt to advance to $4.676 per mBtu.

If the energy source drops below its first resistance level at $4.370 per mBtu, it will see support at $4.307. If the second key support zone is breached, the power-station fuel’s downward movement may extend to $4.217 per mBtu.