Forex Market: EUR/NZD trading forecast for Monday

During Friday’s trading session EUR/NZD traded within the range of 1.5506-1.5570 and closed at 1.5550, gaining 0.32% for the day.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Retail Sales in Germany, the largest economy in the Euro zone, probably rose 0.7% in May, following an unexpected 0.9% drop in the previous month.

The index measures the turnover in retail trade in Germany in the form of nominal or real (at prices of charge) value and its change. Statistics are prepared on the basis of a representative sample. About 27 000 of about 378 000 business units in retail trade in Germany provide information on their turnover to the statistical offices. 700 other major companies in the retail industry provide information directly to the Federal Statistical Office. This is the percentage change from the previous month.

The Federal Statistical Office Destatis is to publish the official report at 6:00 GMT on Monday. In case, retail sales rose more than expected, this would boost euros demand.

New Zealand

Statistics New Zealand is scheduled to release an official report on the number of issued building permits in May. The report is due out at 22:45 GMT on Sunday.

Building Permits (also known as Building Consents) measure the number of new construction projects approved for implementation in New Zealand. Permits shall be issued immediately after approval of the construction project. They are used as a leading indicator for the entire real estate market, as data is collected every month from all territorial government departments.

In addition, the National Bank of New Zealand will release its (NBNZ) Business Confidence index for June. In May the index came in at 53.5.

The index is based on a monthly survey of 1 500 entities of the national economy. It represents a forecast on the development of the business over the next 12 months. The study is for people from the private sector who want clear information about the development of business confidence, exports of the economy, labor market and many other indicators. The NBNZ business confidence indicator is recognized as the leading factor that determines the development of the economy of New Zealand.

The report is due out 3:00 at GMT on Monday.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/NZD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.5578, it will probably continue up to test 1.5606. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.5642.

If EUR/NZD manages to breach the first key support at 1.5514, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.5478. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.5450.