Forex Market: USD/CAD daily trading forecast

Written by Miroslav Marinov

Miroslav Marinov, a financial news editor at TradingPedia, is engaged with observing and reporting on the tendencies in the Foreign Exchange Market, as currently his focus is set on the major currencies of eight developed nations worldwide.

, | Updated: October 30, 2024

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.0930-1.1014. The pair closed at 1.0934, losing 0.43% on a daily basis.

At 6:53 GMT today USD/CAD was up 0.28% for the day to trade at 1.0966. The pair broke the first key weekly resistance and touched a daily high at 1.0974 at 6:55 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the week ended on September 5th, probably dropped to 300 000 from 302 000 in the prior week. This is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of initial jobless claims decreased more than projected, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback. The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably increased to the seasonally adjusted 2 470 000 during the week ended on August 29th, from 2 464 000 in the previous week. This indicator represents the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.

Monthly Budget Statement

The United States probably recorded a government budget deficit of 132.50 billion USD in August, according to market expectations, after a deficit of 94.59 billion USD during the previous month. The latter was a 3% decrease compared to the same month last year, as tax revenue rose at a faster pace than government spending. The largest budget deficit on record was registered in February 2012, or 231.677 billion USD. A wider than projected deficit would have a bearish effect on the greenback. The Financial Management Service, US Treasury is to publish the official figure at 18:00 GMT.

Canada

Selling prices of new homes in Canada probably rose 0.2% in July compared to a month ago, following another 0.2% increase in June. The New Housing Price Index is a key indicator, reflecting the health of nation’s housing market. In case prices surged more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the loonie. Statistics Canada will release the official data at 12:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.0959. In case USD/CAD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.0989, it will probably continue up to test 1.1043. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.1073.

If USD/CAD manages to breach the first key support at 1.0905, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.0875. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.0821.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.0848, M2 – 1.0890, M3 – 1.0932, M4 – 1.0974, M5 – 1.1016, M6 – 1.1058.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.0879. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.0942, R2 – 1.1003, R3 – 1.1066. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.0818, S2 – 1.0755, S3 – 1.0694.