Forex Market: EUR/GBP daily trading forecast

Written by Miroslav Marinov

Miroslav Marinov, a financial news editor at TradingPedia, is engaged with observing and reporting on the tendencies in the Foreign Exchange Market, as currently his focus is set on the major currencies of eight developed nations worldwide.

, | Updated: October 30, 2024

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/GBP within the range of 0.7852-0.7914. The pair closed at 0.7879, losing 0.32% on a daily basis.

At 6:13 GMT today EUR/GBP was down 0.51% for the day to trade at 0.7842. The pair broke the first two key weekly supports as well as the first two key daily support levels and touched a daily low at 0.7810 at 1:40 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Current Account

The surplus on Euro zones seasonally adjusted current account probably expanded to 14.3 billion EUR in July from 13.1 billion EUR in June.

Euro areas current account (without a seasonal adjustment) produced a surplus at the amount of 20.78 billion EUR in June, or the largest figure since March.

The current account reflects the difference between savings and investments in the Euro area. It is the sum of the balance of trade, net current transfers (cash transfers) and net income from abroad (earnings from investments made abroad plus money sent by individuals working abroad to their families back home, minus payments made to foreign investors).

A current account surplus indicates that the net foreign assets of the region have increased by the respective amount, while a deficit suggests the opposite. A nation with a surplus on its current account is considered as a net lender to the rest of the world, while a current account deficit puts it in the position of a net borrower. A net lender is consuming less than it is producing, which means it is saving and those savings are being invested abroad, or foreign assets are created. A net borrower is consuming more than it is producing, which means that other countries are lending it their savings, or foreign liabilities are created. An expanding surplus or a contracting deficit on the areas current account usually has a bullish effect on the euro.

The European Central Bank is expected to release the official data at 8:00 GMT.

France credit rating

Rumors appeared in the media, that the Moodys Investors Service agency was about to downgrade Frances credit rating from AA1 to AA2, due to the announcement by nations government that it might probably not be able to reduce the budget deficit by the next year. French government disproved such rumors. The ratings agency is to announce its official estimate today.

ECB Loan Plan

The European Central Bank lent 82.6 billion EUR to banks in the Euro zone at a fixed interest rate of 0.15% in its targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) on Thursday. This fell short of market expectations, that pointed to 133 billion EUR. According to Bloomberg, the ECB President Mario Draghi may resort to wide-scale purchases of government debt in order to reduce deflation risk in the Euro region. Draghi has indicated that he intends to bolster central bank’s balance sheet to as much as 3 trillion EUR from 2 trillion EUR. Eight TLTROs are to be held in 2016, while the next one is expected in December.

Meanwhile, on Thursday Spanish 10-year government bonds surged, with their yield falling 4 basis points, or 0.04 percentage point to reach 2.24%, while the yield on Italian 10-year bonds decreased 1 basis point to 2.40%.

Scottish referendum

Scotland voted in favor of staying within the United Kingdom, with 55% of voters saying “no” and 45% voting “yes”. If Scotland was to separate from the UK, this would have posed severe political and economic consequences. The sterling received massive support before the announcement of the official results, based on 31 out of 32 regions.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 0.7882. In case EUR/GBP manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.7911, it will probably continue up to test 0.7944. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.7973.

If EUR/GBP manages to breach the first key support at 0.7849, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.7820. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.7787.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 0.7804, M2 – 0.7835, M3 – 0.7866, M4 – 0.7897, M5 – 0.7928, M6 – 0.7959.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 0.7991. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 0.8045, R2 – 0.8121, R3 – 0.8175. The three key support levels are: S1 – 0.7915, S2 – 0.7861, S3 – 0.7785.