Forex Market: EUR/CHF daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/CHF within the range of 1.2081-1.2024. The pair closed at 1.2046, up 0.07% on a daily basis.

At 7:31 GMT today EUR/CHF was down 0.04% for the day to trade at 1.2040. The pair held in a daily range of 1.2038-1.2047.

Fundamental view

Eurozone

Germanys statistics agency Destatis reported that that the nations exports rose by 5.5% on a monthly basis in September, rebounding from a 5.8% contraction in August. Analysts had projected a moderate 1.9% jump.

Imports also rose sharply, by 5.4%, offsetting a 1.3% contraction a month earlier. As a result, the leading EU economys trade surplus widened to €18.5 billion in September from €17.5 in August, matching analysts prediction.

The statistics agency also reported that Germanys industrial output accelerated by a slower-than-expected 1.4% in September on a monthly basis after it contracted by an upward-revised 3.1% in the preceding month from initially estimated at -4.0%. Analysts expected a 2.0% jump.

The index reflects the change in overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and utilities.

Frances Ministry of Finance is expected to report that the countrys September trade balance posted a deficit of €5.9 billion, expanding from €5.8 billion a month earlier.

A separate report by the French statistics agency INSEE will likely report a contraction in the nations industrial production in September on a monthly basis, with the corresponding index projected to register at -0.2%, compared to the previous months flat value.

In annual terms, industrial output is anticipated to have contracted by 0.4%, following up on a 0.2% decline in output in August.

Spains industrial production, on the other hand, probably grew by an annualized 0.8% in September after it expanded 0.6% a month earlier. If confirmed, this would be the 11th straight month of growth.

Switzerland

Switzerlands State Secretariat for Economic Affair (SECO) reported that the Swiss seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.2% in October, remaining at that level for the 18th consecutive month.

On an unadjusted basis, the jobless rate rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in September.

Separately, the Federal Statistical Office is expected to report at 08:00 GMT that retail sales in Switzerland rose at the annualized pace of 1.0% in September, compared to 1.9% a month earlier and following a 0.3% decline in July.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.2050. In case EUR/CHF manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.2077, it may continue up to test 1.2107. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.2134.

If EUR/CHF manages to breach the first key support at 1.2020, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.1993. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.1963.

The mid-pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.1978, M2 – 1.2007, M3 – 1.2035, M4 – 1.2064, M5 – 1.2092 , M6 – 1.2121.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.2064. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.2089, R2 – 1.2118, R3 – 1.2143. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.2035, S2 – 1.2010, S3 – 1.1981.