Forex Market: GBP/NOK daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw GBP/NOK within the range of 11.0832-11.2394. The pair closed at 11.1652, losing 0.41% on a daily basis.

At 8:05 GMT today GBP/NOK was up 0.15% for the day to trade at 11.1855. The pair touched a daily high at 11.1890 at 8:06 GMT.

Fundamentals

United Kingdom

Balance of trade

The deficit on United Kingdom’s goods trade balance probably narrowed to GBP 9.500 billion in October, according to market expectations, from a deficit figure of GBP 9.821 billion during the preceding month.

This indicator is also known as visible trade balance, because it reflects the difference in value between exported and imported physical goods, without the inclusion of exported and imported services. Since UK economy is to a great extent dependent on trade, the visible trade balance is considered as a key factor, providing clues over the resilience of nation’s economic growth.

The gap on the nations total trade balance expanded to GBP 2.84 billion in September from a revised GBP 1.77 billion deficit, posted in August. Total exports of goods and services amounted to GBP 40.89 billion in September and total imports – GBP 43.73 billion.

In case UK trade decifit shrank more than anticipated, this would provide support to the pound. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the official trade data at 9:30 GMT.

Norway

Consumer inflation

Norway’s annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) probably accelerated to 2.1% in November, according to expectations, from 2.0% in October. In monthly terms, the index probably rose 0.2% last month, following another 0.1% increase in October. It reflects the change in the general level of prices of over 650 goods and services, which the population acquires, uses or pays for consumption.

The annualized core consumer inflation (CPI-ATE) probably slowed down to 2.4% in November from 2.5% in October. This indicator is comprised by two main components – CPI-AE, which excludes energy costs and prices of raw materials, and CPI-AT, which is based on real current prices adjusted for taxes. CPI-ATE is the indicator, used by Norges Bank in order to set its interest rate policy. A lower-than-expected core CPI would have a bearish effect on the national currency, as this weakens the case for a rate hike. Statistics Norway is to release the official report on consumer inflation at 9:00 GMT.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 11.1626. In case GBP/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 11.2420, it will probably continue up to test 11.3188. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 11.3982.

If GBP/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 11.0858, it will probably continue to slide and test 11.0064. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 10.9296.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 10.9680, M2 – 11.0461, M3 – 11.1242, M4 – 11.2023, M5 – 11.2804, M6 – 11.3585.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 11.0802. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 11.2723, R2 – 11.4299, R3 – 11.6220. The three key support levels are: S1 – 10.9226, S2 – 10.7305, S3 – 10.5729.