Forex Market: EUR/SEK daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/SEK within the range of 9.2925-9.3759. The pair closed at 9.3746, gaining 0.58% on a daily basis.

At 7:31 GMT today EUR/SEK was down 0.15% for the day to trade at 9.3604, which is also the current daily low.

Fundamentals

Euro zone

French Consumer Price Index

The annualized consumer inflation in France probably remained unchanged at 0.5% in November, according to the median forecast by experts. In October annual inflation accelerated to 0.5% from 0.3% in the prior month, supported by higher cost of services and fresh food. In October upward pressures came from tobacco (up 3.5% year-on-year), other services (+2.2%), fresh food (+1.5%), actual rentals and services for dwellings (+1.4%) and clothing and footwear (+0.3%). At the same time, cost of petroleum products dropped 3.6%, medical products (down 2.9%), food excluding fresh products (down 0.4%), other manufactured products (a 0.6% decrease) and transport (a 0.5% drop).

Key categories, included in Frances Consumer Price Index (CPI), are manufactured products excluding clothing and pharmaceuticals (accounting for 20.6% of the total weight) and food (16.4%). Other categories, which comprise the index, are healthcare (10.1%), energy (8.7%), rentals and real estate services (7.4%), transport and communication services (5%), clothing and footwear (4.7%) and pharmaceuticals (4.6%).

The index measures the change in price levels of the above mentioned basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also provides clues over purchasing tendencies. In case the CPI accelerated, this would have a bullish effect on the euro. The National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies will release the official report at 7:45 GMT.

France’s annualized CPI, evaluated in accordance with Eurostat’s harmonized methodology, probably rose 0.5% during November, the same pace as a month earlier. In monthly terms, the harmonized CPI probably remained flat last month, or the same performance as in October.

ECB Monthly Report

At 9:00 GMT the European Central Bank will release its Monthly Report, including detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions and price stability risks in the Euro region from bank’s perspective. It is usually published one week after ECB’s interest rate decision.

Italian industrial production

Annualized industrial production in Italy probably contracted for a fourth consecutive month, at a pace of 2.3% in October, according to the median forecast by experts, following another 2.9% drop in September. The latter has been the most considerable annual decline since September 2013, when output shrank 2.9%. Italian seasonally adjusted index of industrial production probably rose 0.3% in October compared to a month ago, following a 0.9% drop in September, or the most since July. The index reflects the change in overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and utilities. In case output shrank more than anticipated, this would have a limited bearish effect on the common currency. The National Institute of Statistics (Istat) is to release the official industrial data at 9:00 GMT.

Sweden

Consumer inflation

The annualized consumer inflation in Sweden probably decelerated to -0.3% in November, according to expectations, from -0.1% in October. If so, this would be the lowest annual rate of inflation since August, when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped 0.4%. The index measures the change in price levels of a basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also reflects purchasing trends. The nation’s annualized core CPI probably advanced 0.7% last month, following a 0.6% gain in October. Higher-than-expected core CPI would certainly provide support to the krone. Statistics Sweden is to release the official report on inflation at 8:30 GMT.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 9.3477. In case EUR/SEK manages to breach the first resistance level at 9.4028, it will probably continue up to test 9.4311. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 9.4862.

If EUR/SEK manages to breach the first key support at 9.3194, it will probably continue to slide and test 9.2643. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 9.2360.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 9.2502, M2 – 9.2919, M3 – 9.3336, M4 – 9.3753, M5 – 9.4170, M6 – 9.4587.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 9.2834. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 9.3333, R2 – 9.3815, R3 – 9.4314. The three key support levels are: S1 – 9.2352, S2 – 9.1853, S3 – 9.1371.