Forex Market: EUR/NZD daily trading forecast

Friday’s trade saw EUR/NZD within the range of 1.5738-1.5841. The pair closed at 1.5778, losing 0.30% on a daily basis.

At 11:04 GMT today EUR/NZD was up 0.04% for the day to trade at 1.5801. The pair broke the first key daily resistance level and touched a daily high at 1.5862 at 7:55 GMT.

Fundamentals

Euro zone

Consumer Confidence

Confidence among consumers in the Euro area probably improved in December. The preliminary value of the consumer confidence index probably rose to -11.0. If so, this would be the highest level of confidence since August, when the indicator stood at -10.0. The final index for November came in at -11.6, confirming the preliminary estimate. The indicator measures consumer confidence on a scale of -100 to +100. A reading of -100 suggests a lack of confidence, zero means neutrality and a reading of +100 indicates extreme levels of confidence. The index reflects the level of optimism, which consumers have about economic development in the region. The Business and Consumer Survey is conducted by phone and includes 23 000 households in the Euro zone. The questions asked stress on current economic and financial situation, savings intention and also on expected developments regarding consumer price indexes, general economic situation and major purchases of durable goods. This indicator is one of the five major components, that comprise the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI).

Higher confidence usually implies greater willingness to spend, including large-ticket purchases, while consumer spending is a key factor behind economic growth. Therefore, in case the gauge increased more than anticipated, this would cause a bullish impact on the euro. The European Commission is expected to release the official reading at 15:00 GMT.

New Zealand

Trade Balance

The deficit on New Zealand’s balance of trade probably narrowed to NZD 0.500 billion in November from NZD 0.908 billion in the preceding month. In October goods exports were valued at NZD 4 billion, or a 5.1% drop compared with October 2013. Milk powder, butter, and cheese, the nation’s main export group, were down 24% to NZD 1.1 billion. In case the deficit narrowed more than projected last month, the local dollar would receive support. The official trade data is expected at 21:45 GMT.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.5786. In case EUR/NZD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.5833, it will probably continue up to test 1.5889. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.5936.

If EUR/NZD manages to breach the first key support at 1.5730, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.5683. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.5627.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.5655, M2 – 1.5707, M3 – 1.5758, M4 – 1.5810, M5 – 1.5861, M6 – 1.5913.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.5896. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.6055, R2 – 1.6331, R3 – 1.6490. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.5620, S2 – 1.5461, S3 – 1.5185.