Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.0821-1.0908. The pair closed at 1.0852, gaining 0.07% on a daily basis.
At 8:06 GMT today EUR/USD was down 0.51% for the day to trade at 1.0796. The pair broke the first key daily support level and touched a daily low at 1.0785 at 3:30 GMT. This has been the lowest level since September 3rd 2003, when a low of 1.0762 was recorded.
Rabobank analysts project that EUR/USD may fall to 1.000 by the end of the year. Such a move will be largely supported, in case monetary policy divergence between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve continues to expand. Less than a year ago, on May 7th, EUR/USD recorded an 18-month high at 1.3993.
Fundamentals
Euro area
Italian Industrial Output
Annualized industrial production in Italy probably expanded for a second consecutive month in January, at a pace of 0.1%, according to the median forecast by experts, following a string of five months of declines. In December output grew at an annualized rate of 0.1%.
Italian seasonally adjusted index of industrial production probably rose for a third straight month in January, at a pace of 0.2% from a month ago. In December compared to November output expanded 0.4%. In case output grew at a faster-than-anticipated pace, this would have a limited bullish effect on the common currency. The National Institute of Statistics (Istat) is to release the official industrial data at 9:00 GMT.
United States
Job Openings
The number of job openings in the United States probably rose to 5.053 million in January from 5.028 million in the prior month. If so, this would be the highest level in more than two years. This indicator refers to all positions that are open, but not filled on the last business day of the month. Job openings are part of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which gathers data from about 16 400 non-farm establishments including retailers and manufacturers, as well as federal, state, and local government entities in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The survey assesses the unmet demand for labor in the labor market. Higher-than-projected number of openings is usually dollar positive. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is to release the official data at 14:00 GMT.
Pivot Points
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.0860. In case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.0900, it will probably continue up to test 1.0947. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.0987.
If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.0813, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.0773. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.0726.
The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.0750, M2 – 1.0793, M3 – 1.0837, M4 – 1.0880, M5 – 1.0924, M6 – 1.0967.
In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.0975. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.1110, R2 – 1.1376, R3 – 1.1511. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.0709, S2 – 1.0574, S3 – 1.0308.
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