Ryanair share price up, full-year profit tops projections

Ryanair Holdings Plc, Europe’s largest budget airline, reported on Tuesday a full-year profit above expectations on the back or robust growth in revenue and projected net income to rise further this year as it expects to carry a record 100 million passengers.

The company said that net income in the fiscal year ended March 31st 2015 soared 66% to €867 million from €523 million a year earlier. Revenue jumped by an annualized 12% to €5.654 billion on the back of an 11% increase in customers carried to 90.6 million people. The company had improved its full-year net income guidance in February to €840-€850 million from €810-€830 million previously. Unit costs fell by 5%, including fuel, and were flat otherwise.

The Dublin-based airline, which celebrates its 30th anniversary in 2015, promised to deliver record profit as it enters a new growth phase. It plans to expand its fleet by 46% by the end of the decade and its passengers base by 40%, before ultimately achieving a goal of carrying 160 million passengers per year by 2024.

Michael O’Leary, Ryanair’s chief executive, said: “We are pleased to celebrate Ryanair’s 30th Birthday by reporting this 66% increase in net profit which demonstrates the enduring strength of Ryanair’s lowest fare/lowest cost model which has been transformed by the success of our “Always Getting Better” (AGB) customer experience programme.”

Long known for its poor customer service, Ryanair has been trying to persuade customers that it has embarked on a new path to improve its appeal. It overhauled its web site for easier booking of tickets, launched flights to new destinations, and increased frequencies to destinations popular with business travelers as part of its strategy to target higher-paying clients, while also offering new pay-for amenities. The airline also revamped its booking strategy and is now offering much cheaper prices further in advance, instead of slashing prices as the flight date nears in order to fill up empty seats.

Ryanair said that that it continues to experience strong demand in forward booking momentum thanks to its AGB program, adding that currently forward bookings are on average around 4% stronger compared to a year earlier. And although the airline expects strong traffic growth of around 10% this year, it warned that it would be “foolish” not to expect irrational pricing responses from competitors which cant compete with its lowest costs and fares.

“Therefore, even with the benefit of lower oil, aircraft and financing costs we may suffer periods of fare/yield weakness especially during the H2 winter season,” the company said. “This is why our yield guidance remains cautious at broadly flat in H1 but down 4% to 8% in H2 for a forecast FY yield decline of 2%.”

If accurate, Ryanair, which has a reputation for releasing conservative early-year outlooks, projects that lower costs would still warrant a 10% jump in full-year profit to the range of €940 – €970 million.

The airline typically under-forecasts its full-year profit at the outset by 15% to 20%, RBC Capital analyst Damian Brewer said, cited by the Wall Street Journal. That suggests the airline could deliver a €1.1 billion profit, he added.

Ryanair Holdings Plc traded 5.88% higher at €11.52 per share at 09:34 GMT in Dublin, marking a one-year jump of 66.18%. The airline is valued at €14.89 billion. According to the Financial Times, the 22 analysts offering 12-month price targets for Ryanair Holdings Plc have a median target of €12.00, with a high estimate of €14.00 and a low estimate of €7.93. The median estimate represents a 10.29% increase from the previous close of €10.88.