Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 61.275-62.895. The pair closed at 61.400, falling 0.73% on a daily basis, while marking a fourth straight trading day of losses. The daily low has been the lowest level since July 31st, when the cross registered a low of 59.380.

At 8:04 GMT today USD/RUB was gaining 0.27% for the day to trade at 61.486. The pair touched a daily high at 61.875 at 6:10 GMT, overshooting the range resistance level (R3). In case the pair sees further downside and a break below 60.000, the July 31st low may serve as a level of support.

Today the cross may be influenced by a number of macroeconomic reports as listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Export and import prices

The index of export prices probably fell for a fourth consecutive month in September, going down 0.2%, according to expectations. In August export prices dropped 1.4% compared to a month ago, or at the steepest rate since January 2015, when a 1.9% slump was registered. A drop in export prices implies higher demand in a medium term, while an increase suggests the opposite effect.

At the same time, the index of import prices probably dropped for a fourth month in a row in September as well, dipping 0.5%, according to the median forecast by analysts. In August import prices were 1.8% lower compared to a month ago, which has been the sharpest decline since January 2015. Back then a 3.1% plunge was registered. An increase in import prices implies potentially higher rate of consumer inflation in the country, while a decrease suggests the opposite effect.

The US Department of Labor is to release the official data at 12:30 GMT.

FOMC Minutes reveal concerns over global economic conditions

The Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s September policy meeting showed officials were concerned that recent global macroeconomic conditions may curb economic activity in the United States.

According to excerpts from the Minutes: “In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members judged that information received since the FOMC met in July indicated that economic activity was expanding at a moderate pace. Although net exports remained soft, economic growth was broadly based. Members noted that recent global and financial market developments might restrain economic activity somewhat as a result of the higher level of the dollar and possible effects of slower economic growth in China and in a number of emerging market and commodity-producing economies.”

“In assessing whether economic conditions had improved sufficiently to initiate a firming in the stance of policy, many members said that the improvement in labor market conditions met or would soon meet one of the Committee’s criteria for beginning policy normalization. But some indicated that their confidence that inflation would gradually return to the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term had not increased, in large part because recent global economic and financial developments had imparted some restraint to the economic outlook and placed further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”

“The Committee agreed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and to reaffirm in its postmeeting statement that the Committee’s decision about how long to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate would depend on its assessment of actual and expected progress toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.”

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/RUB are presented as follows:

R1 – 61.549
R2 – 61.697
R3 (range resistance) – 61.846
R4 (range breakout) – 62.291

S1 – 61.252
S2 – 61.103
S3 (range support) – 60.955
S4 (range breakout) – 60.509

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/RUB are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 65.841
R1 – 66.963
R2 – 67.815
R3 – 68.937

S1 – 64.989
S2 – 63.867
S3 – 63.015