Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.4062-1.4247. The pair closed at 1.4224, rising 0.28% on a daily basis, while marking its sixth consecutive trading day of gains. The daily high has been the highest level since May 2nd 2003, when a high of 1.4248 was registered.
At 9:15 GMT today USD/CAD was gaining 0.22% for the day to trade at 1.4246. The pair touched a daily high at 1.4269 at 8:00 GMT, or a level unseen since May 1st 2003, and a daily low at 1.4205 during the early hours of the Asian trading session. Resistance may be seen at the current daily high and then – in the area around the high from May 1st 2003 (1.4303). Support may be received at the hourly 21-period EMA (1.4215), then – in the area around the current daily low (1.4205) and finally – at the hourly 55-period EMA (1.4171).
The Canadian dollar has recently been heavily influenced by a persistent decline in prices of oil. Oil futures for February delivery were down 1.45% on the day to trade at $30.95 per barrel as of 9:50 GMT, after going down as low as $30.42 earlier, or a level unseen since November 2003. The commodity has fallen in 11 out of the past 18 trading days and is set to register its seventh successive daily drop. Oil has slumped 16.13% so far during the current month, following two straight months of decline.
On Tuesday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports and other events listed below.
Fundamentals
United States
Feds Fischer statement
At 10:30 GMT the Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Stanley Fischer, is expected to take a statement. Limited-to-moderate volatility of the currency pairs containing the US dollar is usually present during his speeches.
Job Openings
The number of job openings in the United States probably increased to 5.410 million in November from a month ago, according to the median forecast by experts. In October 5.383 million job openings were reported, or the lowest number since August. This indicator refers to all job positions that are open, but not filled on the last business day of the month. Job openings are part of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which gathers data from about 16 400 non-farm establishments including retailers and manufacturers, as well as federal, state, and local government entities in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The survey assesses the unmet demand for labor in the labor market. Higher-than-projected number of openings will usually have a limited bullish effect on the US dollar. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is to release the official data at 15:00 GMT.
Bond Yield Spread
The yield on Canada’s 2-year government bonds went as high as 0.444% on January 11th, after which it closed at 0.390% to lose 2.8 basis points (0.028 percentage point) compared to January 8th. It has been the 11th drop in the past 18 trading days.
The yield on US 2-year government bonds climbed as high as 0.964% on January 11th, after which it closed at 0.940% to add 0.004 percentage point compared to January 8th. It has been the 8th gain in the past 19 trading days.
The spread between 2-year US and 2-year Canadian bond yields, which reflects the flow of funds in a short term, widened to 0.550% on January 11th from 0.518% on January 8th. The January 11th yield spread has been the largest one since January 6th, when the difference was 0.565%.
Meanwhile, the yield on Canada’s 10-year government bonds soared as high as 1.348% on January 11th, after which it slid to 1.324% at the close to add 2.5 basis points (0.025 percentage point) compared to January 8th. It has been the 7th gain in the past 18 trading days.
The yield on US 10-year government bonds climbed as high as 2.179% on January 11th, after which it slipped to 2.174% at the close to add 5.8 basis points (0.058 percentage point) compared to January 8th. It has been the 7th gain in the past 19 trading days.
The spread between 10-year US and 10-year Canadian bond yields widened to 0.850% on January 11th from 0.817% on January 8th. The January 11th yield difference has been the largest one since January 5th, when the spread was 0.865%.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.4241
R2 – 1.4258
R3 (range resistance) – 1.4275
R4 (range breakout) – 1.4326
S1 – 1.4207
S2 – 1.4190
S3 (range support) – 1.4173
S4 (range breakout) – 1.4122
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.4054
R1 – 1.4296
R2 – 1.4422
R3 – 1.4664
S1 – 1.3928
S2 – 1.3686
S3 – 1.3560
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