Yesterday’s trade saw GBP/USD within the range of 1.4226-1.4359. The pair closed at 1.4244, falling 0.75% on a daily basis. It has been the 12th drop in the past 18 trading days and also the sharpest one since January 15th, when the pair lost 1.08%. The daily high was a lower-high test of the high from January 26th.
At 7:40 GMT today GBP/USD was up 0.11% for the day to trade at 1.4260. The pair touched a daily high at 1.4271 at 7:23 GMT, overshooting the daily R2 level, and a daily low at 1.4233 during the early phase of the Asian trading session.
On Thursday GBP/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
United Kingdom
Gross Domestic Product – preliminary estimate
The preliminary estimate of United Kingdoms GDP probably showed that economy expanded at a rate of 1.9% during the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the same period a year ago. If so, this would be the slowest annual rate of growth since Q3 2013. The Q3 final growth rate of 2.1% was a revision down from the second GDP estimate, which pointed to a 2.3% growth.
Household consumption expenditure rose at a final rate of 3.0% in the third quarter of 2015 compared to the same period a year ago, while the second estimate pointed to a 3.1% growth. Government expenditure was 1.8% higher in Q3, according to final data, while the second estimate pointed to a 1.9% increase. Gross fixed capital formation increased at a final 3.4% in Q3, matching the rates reported in the previous releases. At the same time, UK exports climbed 6.3% in Q3, accelerating from a 5.5% increase, as reported previously, while the nations imports also went up at a final 6.3%, accelerating from a 6.1% surge in the second estimate, the Office for National Statistics said.
On a quarterly basis, the preliminary estimate of UK GDP probably showed a 0.5% growth during Q4 2015, after in Q3 economy expanded at a rate of 0.4%, according to final data, released on December 23rd. The final Q3 GDP growth rate came below the preliminary and the 2nd estimates.
In case the UK economy grew at a slower annual rate than anticipated in Q4, this would have a strong bearish impact on the sterling. The preliminary report is to be released at 9:30 GMT.
United States
Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims
The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on January 22nd, probably dropped to 282 000, according to market expectations, from 293 000 reported in the preceding week. The latter has been the highest number of claims since the week ended on July 3rd 2015, when 297 000 claims were reported.
The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 285 000, marking an increase by 6 500 compared to the preceding weeks revised down average.
The business week, which ended on January 15th has been the 45th consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold, which implied a healthy labor market.
Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or decreased further, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar.
The number of continuing jobless claims probably increased to the seasonally adjusted 2 217 000 during the business week ended on January 15th from 2 208 000 in the preceding week. The latter has been the lowest number of claims since the business week ended on December 18th 2015. The figure also represented a decrease by 56 000 compared to the revised up number of claims reported in the week ended on January 1st. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.
The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 13:30 GMT.
Durable Goods Orders
Durable goods orders in the United States probably dropped 0.6% in December from a month ago, according to the median forecast by experts, after remaining flat in November.
New orders for manufactured durable goods were up USD 0.1 billion in November, or almost unchanged at USD 238.8 billion. The value of shipments of manufactured durable goods, up in two of the past three months, rose 0.9% (or USD 2.1 billion) in November to reach USD 241.8 billion. The value of unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods, up in two consecutive months, rose 0.2% (or USD 1.9 billion) in November to reach USD 1,194.0 billion. At the same time, the value of inventories of manufactured durable goods, down in six of the past seven months, dropped 0.3% (or USD 1.1 billion) during the period to USD 395.7 billion, according to data by the US Census Bureau.
Non-defense new orders for capital goods shrank 6.3% in November to USD 77.2 billion, while defense new orders for capital goods expanded 44.4% to USD 14.1 billion.
Durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, probably shrank 0.1% in December from a month ago, according to expectations, following another 0.1% drop in November. Large ticket orders, such as automobiles for civil use or aircraft, are not present in the calculation, as their value may be in a wide range. This way the index provides a more reliable information in regard to orders for durable goods.
In case the general index fell at a faster-than-projected pace, this would have a strong bearish effect on the US dollar, due to negative implications in regard to the wider gauge of production, factory orders. The US Census Bureau is scheduled to release the official report at 13:30 GMT.
Pending Home Sales
The index of pending home sales in the United States probably rose 0.8% in December, according to the median estimate by experts. If so, this would be the sharpest monthly increase since May 2015, when sales went up 0.9%. In November pending home sales unexpectedly fell 0.9%.
In annual terms, the index of pending home sales advanced 2.7% in November, which has been a 15th consecutive month of increase. However, Novembers rate of sales growth has been the slowest since October 2014, when sales were up 2.2%.
In case pending home sales increased at a faster pace than anticipated, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar. The National Association of Realtor’s (NAR) will report on the official index performance at 15:00 GMT.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.4256
R2 – 1.4268
R3 (range resistance) – 1.4281
R4 (range breakout) – 1.4317
S1 – 1.4232
S2 – 1.4220
S3 (range support) – 1.4207
S4 (range breakout) – 1.4171
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.4236
R1 – 1.4393
R2 – 1.4521
R3 – 1.4678
S1 – 1.4108
S2 – 1.3951
S3 – 1.3823
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
