Forex Market: USD/CAD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.3024-1.3139. The pair closed at 1.3051, falling 0.38% on a daily basis. It has been the 27th drop in the past 56 trading days. USD/CAD has eased its slump to 3.27% so far during the current month.

At 7:33 GMT today USD/CAD was edging up 0.38% on the day to trade at 1.3100. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3102 at 7:21 GMT, undershooting the upper range breakout level (R4), and a daily low at 1.3039 during early Asian trade.

Canada’s dollar retained gains against its US counterpart on Tuesday, as crude oil futures rose to fresh highs unseen since early December 2015. March 22nd marked the 36th gain in oil prices out of the past 68 trading days. Oil futures for May delivery went up as high as $41.90 per barrel on March 22nd, or the highest price level since December 4th, and closed at $41.12, advancing 3.03% on the day. As of 7:40 GMT today the commodity was edging down 0.34% on a daily basis to trade at $40.98 per barrel, after going down as low as $40.88 earlier.

On Wednesday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic report listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

New Home Sales

Sales of new single-family homes probably rose 3.1% to the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 510 000 in February, according to market expectations, from 494 000 reported in January. The latter has been the lowest sales level since October 2015, when a figure of 480 000 was reported. Sales in the West went down 32.1%, while those in the Midwest were 5.9% lower. On the other hand, sales in the South rose 1.8%, while those in the Northeast were 3.4% higher from a month ago.

The median sales price of new houses sold went down as low as USD 278 800 in January, after being at USD 295 800 in the preceding month. The average sales price went up to USD 365 700 in January from USD 347 700 in December. At the end of the month, the seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale was 238 000, up from 233 000 at the end of December. It represents a supply of 5.8 months at the current sales rate, according to the report by the US Census Bureau.

In case the index showed a better-than-anticipated performance, this would strongly support demand for the US dollar. The Census Bureau is to report the official figure at 14:00 GMT.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.3062
R2 – 1.3072
R3 (range resistance) – 1.3083
R4 (range breakout) – 1.3114

S1 – 1.3040
S2 – 1.3030
S3 (range support) – 1.3019
S4 (range breakout) – 1.2988

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.3109
R1 – 1.3298
R2 – 1.3596
R3 – 1.3785

S1 – 1.2811
S2 – 1.2622
S3 – 1.2324