Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.2631-1.2786. The pair closed at 1.2697, retreating 0.66% on a daily basis. It has been the 37th drop in the past 76 trading days and also a third consecutive one. The daily low has been the lowest level since July 6th 2015, when a low of 1.2560 was registered. USD/CAD has depreciated 2.31% so far during the current month, following two consecutive months of decline.
At 6:59 GMT today USD/CAD was edging up 0.09% on the day to trade at 1.2709. The pair touched a daily high at 1.2731 during late Asian trade, overshooting the daily R2 level, and a daily low at 1.2660 during the early phase of the Asian trading session.
The loonie advanced to 9.5-month highs, as crude oil futures tested highs unseen since late November 2015 on Tuesday. April 19th marked the 46th gain in oil prices out of the past 87 trading days. Oil futures for June delivery went up as high as $42.88 per barrel on April 19th, or the highest price level since November 27th 2015, and closed at $41.82, advancing 5.13% from Mondays close. As of 7:07 GMT today the commodity was edging down 0.43% to trade at $41.64, after going down as low as $41.30 per barrel earlier.
On Wednesday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
United States
Existing Home Sales
The index of existing home sales in the United States probably rose 3.5% to a level of 5.30 million in March compared to February, according to the median estimate by experts. In February sales were 7.1% lower from a month ago to reach 5.08 million. Sales of new single-family houses fell at a monthly rate of 7.2% in February, while sales of condos dropped 6.6%. At the same time, the average sales price was 1.5% lower from a month ago.
In case the index rose at a steeper monthly rate than anticipated, this would have a limited bullish effect on the US dollar. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is to release the official figure at 14:00 GMT.
Canada
Wholesale Sales
Wholesale sales in Canada probably fell 0.3% in February compared to a month ago. In January compared to December 2015 the value of sales made by wholesalers in the country remained unchanged. Lower wholesales are indicative of less active retail trade and, respectively, consumption. Therefore, a larger-than-projected drop in wholesale sales would have a limited bearish effect on the loonie. Statistics Canada is to release the official data at 12:30 GMT.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.2711
R2 – 1.2725
R3 (range resistance) – 1.2740
R4 (range breakout) – 1.2782
S1 – 1.2683
S2 – 1.2669
S3 (range support) – 1.2654
S4 (range breakout) – 1.2612
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.2861
R1 – 1.2978
R2 – 1.3134
R3 – 1.3251
S1 – 1.2705
S2 – 1.2588
S3 – 1.2432
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