Yesterday’s trade saw GBP/USD within the range of 1.4447-1.4527. The pair closed at 1.4463, shedding 0.27% compared to Wednesdays close. It has been the 32nd drop in the past 55 trading days and also a second consecutive one. The daily low has been the lowest level since June 7th, when a low of 1.4433 was registered. The major pair has erased earlier gains, edging down 0.13% so far in June, following a 0.92% drop in the prior month.
At 6:36 GMT today GBP/USD was inching down 0.01% on the day to trade at 1.4461. The pair touched a daily high at 1.4473 at 6:28 GMT, overshooting the daily R1 level, and a daily low at 1.4436 at 5:54 GMT.
On Friday GBP/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
United Kingdom
Construction Output
Construction output in the United Kingdom probably shrank 4.8% in April from a year ago, according to the median forecast by experts, following another 4.5% drop in March. The latter has been the third successive month of decline, which increased the Q1 contraction to 1.9% year-on-year. It has been the first period of decline since Q1 2013.
In case construction output shrank at a faster rate than projected, this would have a limited-to-moderate bearish effect on the Pound. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is expected to release the official data at 8:30 GMT.
Consumer Inflation Expectations
At the same hour GfK NOP in cooperation with the Bank of England is to announce the results from their survey on consumer inflation expectations during the three months to June. The Q1 survey showed respondents expected that consumer prices will increase by 1.8% during the upcoming 12 months, or a slowdown from a 2.0% surge, as expected in Q4 2015.
United States
Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – preliminary reading
The monthly survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan may show that consumer confidence in the United States was lower in June. The preliminary reading of the corresponding index, which usually comes out two weeks ahead of the final data, probably fell to 94.0 during the current month from a final reading of 94.7 in May. The latter came below the preliminary reading of 95.8, which was reported on May 13th. Still, the final index reading for May has been the highest since June 2015. Back then the gauge was reported at a final 96.1.
The sub-index of current economic conditions rose to a final reading of 109.9 in May, or the highest since January 2007, while improving from a preliminary value of 108.6. In April this barometer was reported at a final 106.7.
The sub-index of consumer expectations came in at a reading of 84.9, down from a preliminary value of 87.5 in May, but improving from a final reading of 77.6 registered in April.
Participants in the May survey expected that the rate of inflation will be at 2.4% during the next year, or down from a rate of 2.5% in the preliminary release and 2.8%, as expected in April.
In case the gauge of consumer sentiment fell at a steeper pace than projected in June, this would have a moderate-to-strong bearish effect on the US dollar. The preliminary reading is due out at 14:00 GMT.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.4470
R2 – 1.4478
R3 (range resistance) – 1.4485
R4 (range breakout) – 1.4507
S1 – 1.4456
S2 – 1.4448
S3 (range support) – 1.4441
S4 (range breakout) – 1.4419
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.4543
R1 – 1.4701
R2 – 1.4883
R3 – 1.5041
S1 – 1.4361
S2 – 1.4203
S3 – 1.4021
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