Gold trading outlook: futures tumble over 1% during European trade, as concerns over Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign ease

On Friday (in GMT terms) gold for delivery in December traded within the range of $1,295.7-$1,308.3. Futures closed at $1,304.5, inching up 0.09% compared to Thursday’s close. It has been the 177th gain in the past 374 trading days. In weekly terms, gold futures added 2.17% to their value during the past week. It has been the 25th gain in the past 44 weeks, a fourth consecutive one and also the steepest one since the week ended on September 25th. The precious metal has extended its advance to 2.47% so far during the current month, after losing 3.34% in October.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for delivery in December were retreating 1.50% on Monday to trade at $1,284.9 per troy ounce. The precious metal went up as high as $1,296.5 during early Asian trade, while the current daily low was at $1,284.1 per troy ounce, recorded during the early phase of the European trading session.

The US Dollar Index, a gauge reflecting the relative strength of the greenback against a basket of 6 other major currencies, was advancing 0.72% on the day at a level of 97.64, after going up as high as 97.80 earlier. The latter has been an exact test of the high from November 2nd. Last Friday the index fell to 96.94, or a level not seen since October 11th. The gauge has trimmed its slump to 0.81% so far in November, following a 3.18% advance in October.

Demand for haven assets such as gold was curbed on Monday, following news in the media that the Federal Bureau of Investigation cleared the case involving Democratic candidate Hillary Clintons private email server use two days ahead of the US presidential election. Over the weekend, FBI Director, James Comey, told Congress that the Bureau had “not changed its conclusions” on the Democrats case, which eased market concerns regarding Clintons presidential campaign.

Meanwhile, investor medium-term rate hike expectations moderated.

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, as of November 4th, market players saw a 66.8% chance of a rate hike occurring at the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in December, down from 71.5% in the prior business day, and a 68.8% chance of a hike in February 2017, down from 73.3% in the preceding business day. As far as the March 15th 2017 meeting is concerned, the probability of such a move was seen at 70.2% on November 4th, down from 74.5% in the prior business day.

Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily levels of importance for gold are presented as follows:

R1 – $1,305.7
R2 – $1,306.8
R3 (Range Resistance – Sell) – $1,308.0
R4 (Long Breakout) – $1,311.4
R5 (Breakout Target 1) – $1,315.5
R6 (Breakout Target 2) – $1,317.2

S1 – $1,303.3
S2 – $1,302.2
S3 (Range Support – Buy) – $1,301.0
S4 (Short Breakout) – $1,297.6
S5 (Breakout Target 1) – $1,293.5
S6 (Breakout Target 2) – $1,291.8

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly levels of importance for gold are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – $1,295.2
R1 – $1,318.6
R2 – $1,332.6
R3 – $1,356.0
R4 – $1,379.3

S1 – $1,281.2
S2 – $1,257.8
S3 – $1,243.8
S4 – $1,229.7

In monthly terms, for the yellow metal we have the following pivots:

Central Pivot Point – $1,279.6
R1 – $1,316.1
R2 – $1,359.0
R3 – $1,395.5
R4 – $1,431.9

S1 – $1,236.7
S2 – $1,200.2
S3 – $1,157.3
S4 – $1,114.3