Commodity Market: US Crude Oil poised for 21% slump this year due to COVID-19 lockdowns, fiscal stimulus in focus

Following a two-day rally, futures on US West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil eased on Thursday and were set to register a 21% slump in 2020, as COVID-19-related lockdown restrictions delivered a blow to many segments of the global economy, while crippling fuel demand.

Still, oil prices have rebounded from their decade-lows registered in April, as governments introduced stimulus measures.

Growing investor optimism over a global recovery next year, driven by vaccine roll-outs and huge fiscal stimulus packages, has bolstered risk-sensitive assets and pushed the US Dollar to more than 2 1/2-year lows, which further supported prices of dollar-priced commodities.

However, oil price gains are likely to remain capped in the near-term due to concerns that more stern restrictive measures could be reimposed, especially after the emergence of a new, more infectious variant of the coronavirus in the UK and also due to spiking new infections and hospitalizations in parts of Europe and Africa.

When it comes to oil supply, an OPEC+ meeting on January 4th is expected to see oil production rising by 500,000 barrels per day next month.

As of 9:52 GMT on Thursday WTI Crude Oil Futures were edging down 0.29% to trade at $48.26 per barrel, while moving within a daily range of $48.08-$48.43 per barrel. Earlier this week WTI Crude climbed as high as $48.96, or its strongest level since December 21st ($49.31). WTI Crude Oil Futures have risen 6.37% so far in December, following another 26.68% surge in November, the biggest since May.

Brent Oil Futures were inching up 0.06% on the day to trade at $51.50 per barrel, while moving within a daily range of $51.32-$51.65 per barrel. Earlier this week Brent Crude Oil climbed as high as $52.00, or its strongest level since December 21st ($52.28). Brent Oil Futures have risen 8.02% so far in December, following another 25.83% surge in November, or the biggest since May.

Daily Pivot Levels (traditional method of calculation) – WTI Crude Oil Futures

Central Pivot – $48.22
R1 – $48.84
R2 – $49.27
R3 – $49.89
R4 – $50.50

S1 – $47.79
S2 – $47.17
S3 – $46.74
S4 – $46.30

Daily Pivot Levels (traditional method of calculation) – Brent Oil Futures

Central Pivot – $51.44
R1 – $51.93
R2 – $52.38
R3 – $52.87
R4 – $53.35

S1 – $50.99
S2 – $50.50
S3 – $50.05
S4 – $49.59