Commodity Market: US Crude Oil trades not far from a one-month high on revised up oil demand forecasts

Futures on US West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil retreated on Thursday, but still held not far from a fresh one-month high achieved earlier in the day, after the International Energy Agency and OPEC revised up their full-year oil demand forecasts. Additional support to prices came on the back of a larger-than-expected drop in US crude oil stocks.

A report by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories had dropped by 5.889 million barrels during the week ended on April 9th, or the biggest decrease since mid-February. East Coast crude inventories plummeted to an all-time low, the EIA said. In comparison, a consensus of analyst estimates had pointed to a much smaller drop – by 2.889 million barrels.

At the same time, US gasoline inventories increased by 0.309 million barrels during the week ended on April 9th to 8.9 million barrels, or the highest level since August 2020. Analysts on average had anticipated a 0.786 million barrel increase.

“We see robust stock draws even after factoring in bearish risks as refinery runs are set to rise sharply in the coming months,” Citi Research analysts wrote in a note to clients.

Meanwhile, according to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand and supply are on track to be re-balanced during the second half of 2021, while oil producers will have to supply additional 2 million barrels per day to meet the demand.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) this week revised up its global oil demand forecast for 2021, as it now expects global demand to increase by 5.95 million barrels per day.

As of 8:51 GMT on Thursday WTI Crude Oil Futures were retreating 0.33% to trade at $62.94 per barrel, after earlier touching an intraday high at $63.48, or their strongest price level since March 18th ($64.88 per barrel). WTI Crude Oil Futures have risen 6.41% so far in April, following a 3.80% drop in March.

Brent Oil Futures were edging up 0.18% on the day to trade at $66.36 per barrel, after earlier touching an intraday high at $66.92, or their strongest level since March 18th ($68.12 per barrel). Brent Oil Futures have risen 5.25% so far in April, following a 2.14% drop in March.

Daily Pivot Levels (traditional method of calculation) – WTI Crude Oil Futures

Central Pivot – $62.32
R1 – $64.27
R2 – $65.38
R3 – $67.33
R4 – $69.27

S1 – $61.21
S2 – $59.26
S3 – $58.15
S4 – $57.03

Daily Pivot Levels (traditional method of calculation) – Brent Oil Futures

Central Pivot – $65.67
R1 – $67.45
R2 – $68.65
R3 – $70.43
R4 – $72.20

S1 – $64.47
S2 – $62.69
S3 – $61.49
S4 – $60.28