Commodity Market: US Crude Oil retreats nearly 1% due to Iran supply increase concerns

Futures on US West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil retreated on Thursday due to concerns over a possible increase in Iran’s oil supply.

Still, demand optimism regarding the summer driving season in the United States and Europe was providing certain support.

“Most of the euro zone countries’ travel restrictions are lifted considering lower COVID-19 cases boosting demand. However, the rise in cases across many Asian countries including India and the tighter lockdowns have capped a price rally,” Sunilkumar Katke, head of currencies and commodities at Axis Securities, was quoted as saying by Reuters.

Oil markets’ focus remains on Iran’s nuclear talks and whether sanctions imposed on the country’s oil exports are fully lifted.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, is scheduled to hold a meeting on June 1st, where members will need to decide whether to alter plans involving output reduction easing against the prospect of Iran’s oil supply re-entering international crude market.

According to a forecast by Citigroup analysts, OPEC+ will probably continue with its plans to bring back 700,000 barrels per day of oil supply next month. However, the plan to increase supply by additional 840,000 barrels per day in July may now be in doubt, Citi analysts said.

According to a forecast by J.P. Morgan, Iran may add 500,000 barrels per day of oil supply by the end of 2021 and additional 500,000 barrels per day by August 2022.

As of 9:03 GMT on Thursday WTI Crude Oil Futures were retreating 0.92% to trade at $65.60 per barrel, while moving within a daily range of $65.51-$66.18 per barrel. On Tuesday the commodity rose as high as $66.51, or its strongest price level since May 18th ($67.02 per barrel). WTI Crude Oil Futures have risen 3.22% so far in May, following another 7.47% surge in April.

At the same time, Brent Oil Futures were losing 0.71% on the day to trade at $68.25 per barrel, while moving within a daily range of $68.16-$68.81 per barrel. Yesterday Brent Oil rose as high as $69.14, or its strongest price level since May 18th ($70.22 per barrel). Brent Oil Futures have risen 2.34% so far in May, following another 5.74% surge in April.

Daily Pivot Levels (traditional method of calculation) – WTI Crude Oil Futures

Central Pivot – $65.96
R1 – $66.68
R2 – $67.14
R3 – $67.86
R4 – $68.57

S1 – $65.50
S2 – $64.78
S3 – $64.32
S4 – $63.85

Daily Pivot Levels (traditional method of calculation) – Brent Oil Futures

Central Pivot – $68.64
R1 – $69.24
R2 – $69.74
R3 – $70.34
R4 – $70.94

S1 – $68.14
S2 – $67.54
S3 – $67.04
S4 – $66.54